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The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change

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  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Morris, Jennifer
  • Cai, Yongxia
  • Karplus, Valerie
  • Jacoby, Henry

Abstract

We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China’s role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China’s energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China’s commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2°C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1°C to 1.3°C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paltsev, Sergey & Morris, Jennifer & Cai, Yongxia & Karplus, Valerie & Jacoby, Henry, 2012. "The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change," Conference papers 332233, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332233
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332233/files/5824.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claire Gavard & Niven Winchester & Henry Jacoby & Sergey Paltsev, 2011. "What To Expect From Sectoral Trading: A Us-China Example," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 9-26.
    2. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
    3. Ronald Prinn & Sergey Paltsev & Andrei Sokolov & Marcus Sarofim & John Reilly & Henry Jacoby, 2011. "Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 515-537, February.
    4. Sergey Paltsev & John Reilly, 2009. "Energy Scenarios for East Asia, 2005–2025," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Fan Zhai (ed.), From Growth to Convergence, chapter 7, pages 211-242, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Yongze & Li, Ke & Duan, Shenglan & Song, Chenchen, 2023. "Economic growth and environmental pollution in China: New evidence from government work reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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