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Understanding willingness to migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment

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  • Tijan L. Bah
  • C tia Batista

Abstract

Illegal migration to Europe through the sea, though risky, remains one of the most popular migration options for many Sub-Saharan Africans. This study aims at improving our understanding of the determinants of the willingness to migrate illegally from West Africa to Europe. We implemented an incentivized lab-in-the field experiment in rural Gambia, the country with the highest rate of illegal migration to Europe in the region. Sampled male youths aged 15 to 25 were given hypothetical scenarios regarding the probability of dying en route to Europe, and of obtaining asylum or legal residence status after successful arrival. According to our data, potential migrants overestimate both the risk of dying en route to Europe, and the probability of obtaining legal residency status. The experimental results suggest that the willingness to migrate illegally is affected by information on the chances of dying en route and of obtaining a legal residence permit. Our estimates show that providing potential migrants with official numbers on the probability of obtaining a legal residence permit decreases their likelihood of migration by 2.88 percentage points (pp), while information on the risk of migrating increases their likelihood of migration by 2.29pp although the official risk information provided may be regarded as a lower bound to actual mortality. Follow up data collected one year after the experiment show that the migration decisions reported in the lab experiment correlate well with actual migration decisions and intentions. Overall, our study indicates that the migration decisions of potential migrants are likely to actively respond to relevant information.

Suggested Citation

  • Tijan L. Bah & C tia Batista, 2018. "Understanding willingness to migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1803, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:novafr:wp1803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Thitima Puttitanun & Ana Martinez-Donate, 2013. "How Do Tougher Immigration Measures Affect Unauthorized Immigrants?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 1067-1091, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Catia & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Testing classic theories of migration in the lab," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Romuald Meango & Esther Mirjam Girsberger, 2023. "Identification of Ex ante Returns Using Elicited Choice Probabilities: an Application to Preferences for Public-sector Jobs," Papers 2303.03009, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Tjaden, Jasper & Dunsch, Felipe Alexander, 2021. "The effect of peer-to-peer risk information on potential migrants – Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Clemens, Michael A., 2020. "The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 13612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bah, Tijan L. & Batista, Catia & Gubert, Flore & McKenzie, David, 2023. "Can information and alternatives to irregular migration reduce “backway” migration from The Gambia?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2024. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Sandrine Mesplé-Somps and & Björn Nilsson, 2020. "Role models and migration intentions," Working Paper 519bfbde-8d2e-4e86-bd62-0, Agence française de développement.
    10. Romuald Méango & François Poinas, 2023. "The (Option-) Value of Overstaying," CESifo Working Paper Series 10536, CESifo.
    11. Catia Batista & David Costa & Pedro Freitas & Goncalo Lima & Ana Reis, 2024. "What Matters for the Decision to Study Abroad? A Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in Cape Verde," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2413, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    12. Romauld Méango, 2023. "Identification of ex ante returns using elicited choice probabilities," Economics Series Working Papers 1007, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:16:p:65-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Jules Gazeaud & Eric Mvukiyehe & Olivier Sterck, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 143-157, January.
    16. Jasper Tjaden & Horace Gninafon, 2022. "Raising Awareness About the Risk of Irregular Migration: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Guinea," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(3), pages 745-766, September.
    17. Elanga Mendogo, Daniel Joël & Bocquého, Géraldine, 2024. "Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Abdoukabirr Daffeh, 2024. "The Experience of Gambian Migrants in Libya: Understanding Factors that Influenced their Returned," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(2), pages 873-882, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Information; Expectations; Illegal migration; Willingness to migrate; Lab-in-the-Field Experiment; The Gambia;
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