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Uruguay, Pensions and Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Alvaro Forteza

    (Departmento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

Abstract

We simulate the budget of the main pension institution of the country, the Banco de Previsión Social (BPS), from 1995, the year the reform was passed, to 2050, when the new system should be mature. We perform several sensitivity analyses to evaluate which are the key exogenous variables and parameters determining the financial performance of the BPS in the medium to long run. According to our simulations, the budget of the BPS will be highly sensitive to the ages of retirement and to the ability and willingness of the institution to control the fulfilment of the required conditions to receive a contributory pension. The flexibility with which the BPS granted these benefits in the past had significant effects on its financial performance, according to these simulations. In recent years, the BPS has tightened the controls, with potentially significant effects on both the budget and the number of individuals excluded from the contributory programs. We study the contingent fiscal liabilities that are

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Uruguay, Pensions and Fiscal Sustainability," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0204, Department of Economics - dECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0204
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/1993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Caristo & Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "El déficit del Banco de Previsión Social y su impacto en las finanzas del gobierno uruguayo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0703, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Alvaro Forteza, 2002. "Un modelo macroeconómico de simulación para el Banco de Previsión Social," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1202, Department of Economics - dECON.
    3. Carlos Gradín & Máximo Rossi, 2001. "The distribution of income in Uruguay: the effects of economic and institutional reforms," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0301, Department of Economics - dECON.
    4. Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "Seguridad social y competencia política," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0403, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Ronald Miranda, 2020. "The Behaviour of Social Transfers over the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence of Uruguay," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 25-54, June.
    2. Ulises Garcí­a Repetto, 2011. "El financiamiento de la seguridad social en el Uruguay (1896-2008): una aproximación a su análisis en el largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 11-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.

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