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El déficit del Banco de Previsión Social y su impacto en las finanzas del gobierno uruguayo

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  • Anna Caristo

    (Departmento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

  • Alvaro Forteza

    (Departmento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

Abstract

The Uruguayan pension system is one of the largest in Latin America relative to the country size. In 1995, the parliament passed a new pension law that introduced structural reforms in the system. The key goal of the reform was to restore intertemporal sustainability of the public budget, that was threatened by the steady growth of pension expenditure. The present paper summarizes some results from simulations designed to assess fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the reform. In the base scenario, the deficit of the public pension program and the primary deficit of the government rise at the inception - the so-called transition deficit-, but reduce significantly in the medium to long run. Sensitivity analysis shows that the expected improvement in the control of evasion is a key variable in the projected reduction of the primary deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Caristo & Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "El déficit del Banco de Previsión Social y su impacto en las finanzas del gobierno uruguayo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0703, Department of Economics - dECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0703
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/1981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alvaro Forteza, 2002. "Un modelo macroeconómico de simulación para el Banco de Previsión Social," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1202, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Laens, Silvia & Noya, Nelson, 2000. "Efectos fiscales de la reforma de la seguridad social en Uruguay," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 5078, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON.
    4. Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "Seguridad social y competencia política," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0403, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvaro Forteza & Daniel Buquet & Mario Ibarburu & Jorge Lanzaro & Andrés Pereyra & Eduardo Siandra & Marcel Vaillant, 2003. "Understanding reform. The Uruguayan case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0603, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. José Mourelle, 2010. "Fiscal and exchange rate policies during the Argentine and Uruguayan crisis of 2001-2002," Documentos de trabajo 2010012, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Ulises Garcí­a Repetto, 2011. "El financiamiento de la seguridad social en el Uruguay (1896-2008): una aproximación a su análisis en el largo plazo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 11-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    4. Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Uruguay, Pensions and Fiscal Sustainability," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0204, Department of Economics - dECON.
    5. Álvaro Forteza, 2007. "Efectos Distributivos de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social. El Caso Uruguayo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 31-58.
    6. Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Uruguay, Options for Pensions Reform," Public Economics 0406002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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