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Los efectos fiscales de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social uruguaya

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  • Alvaro Forteza

Abstract

This paper summarizes our simulations of the fiscal effects of the recent reform of the Uruguayan pension system for the 1996-2050 period. According to our results, fiscal effects of the reform crucially depend on what happens with the retirement age and with evasion in the new regime. We get permanent increases of the fiscal deficit and public debt, if average retirement age does not change significantly and there is no reduction in evasion. The reform can cause sustainable fiscal deficit and public debt reduction, instead, if average retirement age rises in at least two years or evasion is substantially reduced. In this sense, we conclude that fiscal success of the reform rests on its ability to reduce evasion or to induce retirement postponement.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Los efectos fiscales de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social uruguaya," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0898, Department of Economics - dECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0898
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/2319
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    1. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, April.
    2. Falkingham, Jane & Johnson, Paul, 1993. "The life cycle distributional consequence of pay-as-you-go and funded pension systems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1200, The World Bank.
    3. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON.
    4. Marisa Bucheli, 1998. "Aspectos metodológicos de la estimación de la curva salarial," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1198, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    1. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Alvaro Forteza, 1999. "Política de clientelas y reformas de la Seguridad Social en América Latina," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1899, Department of Economics - dECON.
    3. Álvaro Forteza, 2007. "Efectos Distributivos de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social. El Caso Uruguayo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 31-58.
    4. Eduardo Siandra, 1999. "La inversión extranjera de los fondos de pensiones y el desarrollo del mercado de capitales doméstico," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0599, Department of Economics - dECON.
    5. Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "Seguridad social y competencia política," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0403, Department of Economics - dECON.
    6. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Los efectos de la Reforma uruguaya de la Seguridad Social en el ahorro," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1098, Department of Economics - dECON.

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