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Spatial dependence in (origin-destination) air passenger flows

Author

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  • Doucet, Romain
  • Margaretic, Paula
  • Thomas-Agnan, Christine
  • Villotta, Quentin

Abstract

We explore the estimation of origin-destination (OD), city-pair, air passengers, in order to explicitly take into account spatial autocorrelation. To our knowledge, we are the first to test the presence of spatial autocorrelation and apply spatial econometric OD flow models to air transport. Drawing on a world sample of 279 cities, over 2010-2012, we find significant evidence of spatial autocorrelation in air passenger flows. Thus, contrary to common practice, we need to incorporate the spatial structure present in the data, when estimating OD air passengers. Importantly, failure to do it, may lead to inefficient estimated coefficients and prediction bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Doucet, Romain & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Villotta, Quentin, 2014. "Spatial dependence in (origin-destination) air passenger flows," TSE Working Papers 14-494, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:28229
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Yu & Xiaofei Ye & Jun Chen & Xingchen Yan & Tao Wang, 2020. "Evaluation Indexes and Correlation Analysis of Origination–Destination Travel Time of Nanjing Metro Based on Complex Network Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Dardati, Evangelina & Laurent, Thibault & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2024. "Climate, Conflict and International Migration," TSE Working Papers 24-1575, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Dapeng Zhang, 2024. "Examining the Effects of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and State Government Policies on Passenger Air Traffic Recovery by Proposing an OD Spatial Temporal Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 341-359, June.
    4. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Lukas Dargel, 2021. "Revisiting estimation methods for spatial econometric interaction models," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-41, December.
    6. Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara, 2020. "Integrated origin-based demand modeling for air transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Paula Margaretic & Sebastián Becerra, 2017. "Dispersed Information and Sovereign Risk Premia," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 808, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "The spatial structure debate in spatial interaction modeling: 50 years on," OSF Preprints 42vxn, Center for Open Science.

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    Keywords

    Spatial autocorrelation; spatial econometric origin-destination flow model; air passenger flows;
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