IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/netspa/v24y2024i2d10.1007_s11067-024-09619-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the Effects of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and State Government Policies on Passenger Air Traffic Recovery by Proposing an OD Spatial Temporal Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dapeng Zhang

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

As the world is reopening from the unprecedented global pandemic, investigating how the intensity of transmission and responsive policies affect passenger air traffic demand is valuable for the aviation industry recovery and post-pandemic economic development. This paper investigates the effects of confirmed COVID-19 cases and state government policies at 28 hub airports in the United States from March 2020 to September 2021 by proposing an origin-destination (OD) spatial temporal econometric model. The investigation finds that (1) confirmed COVID-19 cases and state government policies had the highest effects on air traffic in the same month as these events occurred and the effects were diminishing in the following months; (2) The policy of internal movement restrictions in a given state generated a higher impact for trips arriving at this state, while confirmed COVID-19 cases and the testing policy generated a higher impact for trips departing from this state; (3) Reopening offices, lifting movement restrictions, maintaining flexibility in accessing COVID-19 tests, and using facial covering onboard are effective policies for aviation industry recovery. This paper aims to be a timely study on air travel demand when the domestic traffic has almost achieved the pre-pandemic level, offering insights into recovery of the aviation industry and preparation for future uncertainties. In addition, the proposed OD spatial temporal model which captures OD spatial dependences and temporal correlations simultaneously can equip spatial economists with an innovative and powerful tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Dapeng Zhang, 2024. "Examining the Effects of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and State Government Policies on Passenger Air Traffic Recovery by Proposing an OD Spatial Temporal Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 341-359, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:24:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11067-024-09619-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-024-09619-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11067-024-09619-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11067-024-09619-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James LeSage & Carlos Llano-Verduras, 2014. "Forecasting spatially dependent origin and destination commodity flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1543-1562, December.
    2. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    3. Solmaria Halleck Vega & J. Paul Elhorst, 2014. "Modelling regional labour market dynamics in space and time," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 819-841, November.
    4. Chung, Lap Hang, 2015. "Impact of pandemic control over airport economics: Reconciling public health with airport business through a streamlined approach in pandemic control," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 42-53.
    5. Tanrıverdi, Gökhan & Bakır, Mahmut & Merkert, Rico, 2020. "What can we learn from the JATM literature for the future of aviation post Covid-19? - A bibliometric and visualization analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Paula Margaretic & Christine Thomas-Agnan & Romain Doucet, 2017. "Spatial dependence in (origin-destination) air passenger flows," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(2), pages 357-380, June.
    7. Valdes, Victor, 2015. "Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-84.
    8. James P. LeSage & Christine Thomas-Agnan, 2015. "Interpreting Spatial Econometric Origin-Destination Flow Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 188-208, March.
    9. Reichardt, Uta & Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F. & Pétursdóttir, Guðrún, 2019. "Developing scenarios to explore impacts and weaknesses in aviation response exercises for volcanic ash eruptions in Europe," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Luc Anselin, 2010. "Thirty years of spatial econometrics," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 3-25, March.
    11. Lung-fei Lee & Jihai Yu, 2012. "QML Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Time Varying Spatial Weights Matrices," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 31-74, March.
    12. Warnock-Smith, David & Graham, Anne & O'Connell, John F. & Efthymiou, Marina, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on air transport passenger markets: Examining evidence from the Chinese market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Cugueró-Escofet, Natàlia, 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Warnock-Smith, David & Graham, Anne & O'Connell, John F. & Efthymiou, Marina, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on air transport passenger markets: Examining evidence from the Chinese market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Philipp Otto & Wolfgang Schmid, 2018. "Spatiotemporal analysis of German real-estate prices," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-72, January.
    3. Salesi, Vinolia Kilinaivoni & Kan Tsui, Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Gilbey, Andrew, 2022. "Strategies for South Pacific Region to address future pandemics: Implications for the aviation and tourism sectors based on a systematic literature review (2010–2021)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 107-126.
    4. Shi, Wei & Lee, Lung-fei, 2018. "A spatial panel data model with time varying endogenous weights matrices and common factors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 6-34.
    5. Hiney, Noel & Efthymiou, Marina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on Irish airport stakeholder relationships," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Ni, Linglin & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Zhang, Dapeng, 2016. "Impacts of information technology and urbanization on less-than-truckload freight flows in China: An analysis considering spatial effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 12-25.
    7. Michelmann, Johannes & Schmalz, Ulrike & Becker, Axel & Stroh, Florian & Behnke, Sebastian & Hornung, Mirko, 2023. "Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Halleck Vega, Solmaria & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2016. "A regional unemployment model simultaneously accounting for serial dynamics, spatial dependence and common factors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-95.
    9. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "The spatial structure debate in spatial interaction modeling: 50 years on," OSF Preprints 42vxn, Center for Open Science.
    10. Michele Aquaro & Natalia Bailey & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: An application to US house prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 18-44, January.
    11. Kerkman, Kasper & Martens, Karel & Meurs, Henk, 2018. "Predicting travel flows with spatially explicit aggregate models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 68-88.
    12. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Dube, Kaitano & Nhamo, Godwell & Chikodzi, David, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Pérez-Campuzano, Darío & Rubio Andrada, Luis & Morcillo Ortega, Patricio & López-Lázaro, Antonio, 2022. "Visualizing the historical COVID-19 shock in the US airline industry: A Data Mining approach for dynamic market surveillance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "An analysis of the context factors influencing the diverse response of airports to COVID-19 using panel and group regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    16. Moura, Ticiana Grecco Zanon & Chen, Zhangliang & Garcia-Alonso, Lorena, 2019. "Spatial interaction effects on inland distribution of maritime flows," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Chiambaretto, Paul & Mayenc, Elodie & Chappert, Hervé & Engsig, Juliane & Fernandez, Anne-Sophie & Le Roy, Frédéric, 2021. "Where does flygskam come from? The role of citizens’ lack of knowledge of the environmental impact of air transport in explaining the development of flight shame," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Angulo, Ana & Burridge, Peter & Mur, Jesús, 2018. "Testing for breaks in the weighting matrix," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 115-129.
    19. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Kade Sorensen, 2021. "A spatial model averaging approach to measuring house prices," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
    20. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:24:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11067-024-09619-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.