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Demand Modelling Methodologies: Integration and other Issues

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  • Clive Morley

    (School of Management, RMIT University, GPO Box 2576V, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia)

Abstract

The exponential growth in tourist numbers motivates serious analysis of this phenomenon. The econometric methods commonly used do not take this central feature of demand seriously in the form and estimating of tourism demand models. Cointegration analysis has been used in recognition of the problem as a technical estimation issue. But this is unsatisfactory, due to both technical methodological concerns with the use of cointegration analysis and because it overcomes the growth issue rather than incorporating it into the model. A model form which does incorporate growth is proposed. Other, newer methods – neural networks and structural equations modelling – are sometimes applied, but these too are not unproblematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive Morley, 2000. "Demand Modelling Methodologies: Integration and other Issues," Tourism Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 5-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:6:y:2000:i:1:p:5-19
    DOI: 10.5367/000000000101297442
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    Cited by:

    1. Albaladejo, Isabel P. & González-Martínez, María Isabel & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2016. "Nonconstant reputation effect in a dynamic tourism demand model for Spain," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 132-139.
    2. Allen, David & Yap, Ghialy & Shareef, Riaz, 2009. "Modelling interstate tourism demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2733-2740.
    3. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-214, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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