IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20150002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Option Prices and Model-free Measurement of Implied Herd Behavior in Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Daniël Linders

    (KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium)

  • Jan Dhaene

    (KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium)

  • Wim Schoutens

    (KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce two classes of indices which can be used to measure the market perception concerning the degree of dependency that exists between a set of random variables, representing di¤erent stock prices at a xed future date. The construction of these measures is based on the theory of comonotonicity. Both types of herd behavior indices are model-free and risk-neutral, derived from available option data. Depending on its particular de nition, each index represents a particular aspect of the market sentiment concerning future co-movement of the underlying stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniël Linders & Jan Dhaene & Wim Schoutens, 2015. "Option Prices and Model-free Measurement of Implied Herd Behavior in Stock Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-002/IV/DSF 83, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/15002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Shaun, 1996. "Premium Calculation by Transforming the Layer Premium Density," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 71-92, May.
    2. David Hobson & Peter Laurence & Tai-Ho Wang, 2005. "Static-arbitrage upper bounds for the prices of basket options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 329-342.
    3. José Fonseca & Martino Grasselli & Claudio Tebaldi, 2007. "Option pricing when correlations are stochastic: an analytical framework," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 151-180, May.
    4. Ruodu Wang & Liang Peng & Jingping Yang, 2013. "Bounds for the sum of dependent risks and worst Value-at-Risk with monotone marginal densities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 395-417, April.
    5. Dhaene, Jan & Linders, Daniël & Schoutens, Wim & Vyncke, David, 2012. "The Herd Behavior Index: A new measure for the implied degree of co-movement in stock markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 357-370.
    6. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    8. J. Dhaene & S. Vanduffel & M. Goovaerts, 2007. "Comonotonicity," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(2), pages 265-278.
    9. Dion Harmon & Marcus A. M. de Aguiar & David D. Chinellato & Dan Braha & Irving R. Epstein & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2011. "Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic," Papers 1102.2620, arXiv.org.
    10. Wang, Bin & Wang, Ruodu, 2011. "The complete mixability and convex minimization problems with monotone marginal densities," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(10), pages 1344-1360, November.
    11. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-33, August.
    12. Koch, Inge & De Schepper, Ann, 2011. "Measuring Comonotonicity in M-Dimensional Vectors," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 191-213, May.
    13. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 133-161, October.
    14. Madan, Dilip B. & Schoutens, Wim, 2013. "Systemic risk tradeoffs and option prices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 222-230.
    15. Chen, X. & Deelstra, G. & Dhaene, J. & Vanmaele, M., 2008. "Static super-replicating strategies for a class of exotic options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1067-1085, June.
    16. Vasiliki D. Skintzi & Apostolos‐Paul N. Refenes, 2005. "Implied correlation index: A new measure of diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 171-197, February.
    17. Bernard, Carole & Jiang, Xiao & Wang, Ruodu, 2014. "Risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-108.
    18. Alexander Cherny & Dilip Madan, 2009. "New Measures for Performance Evaluation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2371-2406, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee Woojoo & Ahn Jae Youn, 2017. "Measuring herd behavior: properties and pitfalls," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 316-329, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jae Youn Ahn, 2015. "Negative Dependence Concept in Copulas and the Marginal Free Herd Behavior Index," Papers 1503.03180, arXiv.org.
    2. Lee Woojoo & Ahn Jae Youn, 2017. "Measuring herd behavior: properties and pitfalls," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 316-329, December.
    3. Chaoubi, Ihsan & Cossette, Hélène & Gadoury, Simon-Pierre & Marceau, Etienne, 2020. "On sums of two counter-monotonic risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-60.
    4. Runhuan Feng & Xiaochen Jing & Jan Dhaene, 2015. "Comonotonic Approximations of Risk Measures for Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits with Dynamic Policyholder Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-008/IV/DSF85, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Tavin, Bertrand, 2015. "Detection of arbitrage in a market with multi-asset derivatives and known risk-neutral marginals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 158-178.
    6. Ruodu Wang & Ričardas Zitikis, 2021. "An Axiomatic Foundation for the Expected Shortfall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1413-1429, March.
    7. Wang, Bin & Wang, Ruodu, 2015. "Extreme negative dependence and risk aggregation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 12-25.
    8. Lauzier, Jean-Gabriel & Lin, Liyuan & Wang, Ruodu, 2023. "Pairwise counter-monotonicity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 279-287.
    9. H. Albrecher & P. A. Mayer & W. Schoutens, 2008. "General Lower Bounds for Arithmetic Asian Option Prices," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 123-149.
    10. Takaaki Koike & Liyuan Lin & Ruodu Wang, 2022. "Joint mixability and notions of negative dependence," Papers 2204.11438, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    11. Mao, Tiantian & Wang, Ruodu, 2015. "On aggregation sets and lower-convex sets," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 170-181.
    12. Jean-Gabriel Lauzier & Liyuan Lin & Ruodu Wang, 2023. "Pairwise counter-monotonicity," Papers 2302.11701, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    13. Yukihiro Tsuzuki, 2012. "On the Optimal Super- and Sub-Hedging Strategies," CARF F-Series CARF-F-300, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Aug 2013.
    14. Bernard, Carole & Jiang, Xiao & Wang, Ruodu, 2014. "Risk aggregation with dependence uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 93-108.
    15. Dhaene, Jan & Linders, Daniël & Schoutens, Wim & Vyncke, David, 2012. "The Herd Behavior Index: A new measure for the implied degree of co-movement in stock markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 357-370.
    16. Hansjörg Albrecher & Philipp Mayer, 2010. "Semi-Static Hedging Strategies For Exotic Options," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Rüdiger Kiesel & Matthias Scherer & Rudi Zagst (ed.), Alternative Investments And Strategies, chapter 14, pages 345-373, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2021. "A model-free approach to multivariate option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 135-155, July.
    18. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Risk bounds for factor models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 631-659, July.
    19. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2020. "Model-free bounds for multi-asset options using option-implied information and their exact computation," Papers 2006.14288, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    20. Raj Kumari Bahl & Sotirios Sabanis, 2017. "General Price Bounds for Guaranteed Annuity Options," Papers 1707.00807, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comonotonicity; herd behavior; HIX; index options; market fear; Model-free measures; VIX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.