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Forecasting Dynamic Market Share Relationships

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  • Nobuhiko Terui

    (Tohoku University)

Abstract

In market share analysis, it is well recognized that we have often inadmissible predicted marketshare, which means that some of predictors take the values outside the range [0, 1] and the totalsum of predicted shares is not always one, so called "logical inconsistency". In this article, basedon Bayesian VAR model, I propose a dynamic market share model with logical consistency. Theproposed method makes it possible to forecast not only the values of market share by themselves,but also various dynamic market share relations across different brands or companies. The dailyscanner data are analyzed by the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiko Terui, 1997. "Forecasting Dynamic Market Share Relationships," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:19970042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Exact predictive densities for linear models with arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-86, January.
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