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The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ferguson

    (Institute for New Economic Thinking)

  • Benjamin Page

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jacob Rothschild

    (Northwestern University)

  • Jie Chen

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Arturo Chang

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using survey data from the American National Election Survey and aggregate data on Congressional districts, it assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s `Populist` candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role in the campaign and that social factors such as race or gender suffice to explain the outcome. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important influences, the paper shows how various economic considerations helped Trump win the Republican primary and then led significant blocs of voters to shift from supporting Democrats or abstaining in 2012 to vote for him. It also presents striking evidence of the importance of political money and Senators` `reverse coattails` in the dramatic final result.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ferguson & Benjamin Page & Jacob Rothschild & Jie Chen & Arturo Chang, 2018. "The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016," Working Papers Series 83, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:83
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306267
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Michael Tesler, 2012. "The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 690-704, July.
    5. Peter Temin, 2015. "The American Dual Economy: Race, Globalization, and the Politics of Exclusion," Working Papers Series 26, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Lance Taylor & Özlem Ömer, 2019. "Race to the Bottom: Low Productivity, Market Power, and Lagging Wages," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Stokes, Donald E. & Campbell, Angus & Miller, Warren E., 1958. "Components of Electoral Decision," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 367-387, June.
    8. Carl Benedikt Frey & Thor Berger & Chinchih Chen, 2018. "Political machinery: did robots swing the 2016 US presidential election?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 418-442.
    9. Servaas Storm, 2017. "The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation, and the Vanishing Middle Class," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 169-210, October.
    10. William Lazonick, 2017. "The Functions of the Stock Market and the Fallacies of Shareholder Value," Working Papers Series 58, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    11. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferguson, Thomas & Jorgensen, Paul & Chen, Jie, 2022. "How money drives US congressional elections: Linear models of money and outcomes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 527-545.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political economy; voting; 2016 presidential election; Donald Trump; Populism; political parties; political money; international economic policy; free trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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