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Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study

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  • Marius Brülhart
  • Mary Kelly

Abstract

Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their "normal" level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still only half of their "normal" size. The value of estimated "normal" trade corresponds to 0.8 percent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 percent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 percent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the "long-term" scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 7.7 percent of Irish GNP in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Brülhart & Mary Kelly, 1998. "Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study," Economics Technical Papers 9815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduet:9815
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    6. Marques, Helena, 2002. "Trade Similarities between Eastern and Southern Europe: Opportunities or Competition?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20.
    7. Frank Barry, 2004. "Prospects for Ireland in an Enlarged EU," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 829-852, June.
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    10. Matthew Q. McPherson & William N. Trumbull, 2004. "Winners and Losers: The Effect of Cuba's Political-Based Trading Policies," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 14.
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    15. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Shaik, Saleem & Wozniak, Shawn J. & Allen, Albert J., 2008. "Increased Cocoa Bean Exports under Trade Liberalization: A Gravity Model Approach," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6819, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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