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El Potencial de Comercio del Acuerdo Trans-Pacifico para el Peru, un enfoque Gravitacional

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Rodriguez

    (Universidad del Pacifico)

  • Jorge Davalos

    (Universidad del Pacifico)

Abstract

A pesar de la decision de Estados Unidos de no participar, el Acuerdo de la Asociacion Trans-Pacifico (TPP) se constituye en una importante oportunidad para la agenda de politicas comerciales del Peru. De ratificarse el TPP, se plantea la necesidad de identificar a los socios comerciales con el mayor potencial exportador. De no ratificarse, el Peru podria pretender establecer acuerdos de libre comercio (TLC) con aquellos paises que muestren el mayor potencial exportador. Asi, este articulo responde a esta pregunta mediante la especificacion y estimacion de un modelo gravitacional, el cual permite estimar el impacto de una disminucion de las barreras comerciales en el potencial de comercio. La estimacion del modelo gravitacional se efectua para los potenciales socios comerciales del Peru - paises miembros del TPP con los que el Peru no se tiene ningun acuerdo comercial - para el periodo 2005-2015. Los resultados no sugieren que una reduccion de las barreras comerciales implique un aumento estadisticamente significativo en el potencial de comercio con estos paises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Rodriguez & Jorge Davalos, 2017. "El Potencial de Comercio del Acuerdo Trans-Pacifico para el Peru, un enfoque Gravitacional," Revista Internacional de Gestión del Conocimiento y la Tecnología (GECONTEC), Revista Internacional de Gestión del Conocimiento y la Tecnología (GECONTEC), vol. 5(2), pages 93-107, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rge:journl:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:93-107
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7507073
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    2. Aliev, Timur (Алиев, Тимур) & Flegontova, Tatiana (Флегонтова, Татьяна) & Kuznetsova, A (Кузнецова, А.) & Pyzhikov, Nikita (Пыжиков, Никита) & Ivashentsov, G (Ивашенцов, Г.) & Ponomareva, Olga (Понома, 2018. "Activation of the Integration Agenda of the Eaec in the Context of Changing the Regional Architecture in the Apr [Активизация Интеграционной Повестки Еаэс В Условиях Изменения Региональной Архитект," Working Papers 031834, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo gravitacional; Potencial de comercio; Peru; TPP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • M15 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - IT Management
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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