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The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Olcay Yucel Culha
  • Fatih Ozatay
  • Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu

Abstract

This study analyzes both short-run and long-run determinants of the sovereign spreads in a set of 21 emerging countries over the period 1998-2004 utilizing both daily and monthly data and estimate individual country and panel regressions. Our analysis shows that both domestic and international factors affect spreads, where the most important common determinant of the spreads is found to be the risk appetite of foreign investors. By using an event study methodology we find no evidence of impact of the FOMC announcements on spreads. Finally, we analyze whether news regarding domestic politics and announcements of international organizations play a role in the evolution of spreads. Using the postcrisis data of Turkey, we point out an important effect of such news releases.

Suggested Citation

  • Olcay Yucel Culha & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2006. "The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 0604, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    2. Ciarlone, Alessio & Piselli, Paolo & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2009. "Emerging markets' spreads and global financial conditions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 222-239, April.
    3. Erdal ÖZMEN & Cihan YALÇIN, 2007. "Küresel finansal riskler karşısında Türkiye’de reel sektörün finansal yapısı ve borç dolarizasyonu," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(258), pages 5-39.
    4. Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167181-1671, September.
    5. Roberto Chang, 2010. "Elections, Capital Flows, and Politico-economic Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1759-1777, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond spreads; emerging markets; Fed announcements; political news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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