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The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics

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  • Andrea Fracasso

    (Department of Economics, University of Trento)

Abstract

This paper examines the relative importance of global and domestic factors as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil from 1995 to 2004. US and Brazilian credit spreads are encompassed in a near-VAR model, including the main debt-related domestic variables. The US corporate bond spread is used as a measure of international risk aversion. The relative importance of global factors to the volatility of Brazilian domestic series is singled out by means of a partial identification strategy, whereby foreign variables are treated as block exogenous. The estimates reveal that foreign investors’ appetite for risk is an important determinant of the volatility of the macroeconomic Brazilian series and affects the monetary policy transmission channel, as recently suggested by Olivier Blanchard.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp22-2007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate: The Role of Domestic and External Factors," IMF Working Papers 1997/128, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2018. "The EMBI in Latin America: Fractional integration, non-linearities and breaks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 34-41.
    2. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    3. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2017. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American Countries," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 40(112), pages 14-30, Enero.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External factors; Credit spreads; External debt; Fiscal dominance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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