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Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models

Author

Listed:
  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

  • Irina B. Panovska

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Tara M. Sinclair

    (the George Washington University)

Abstract

Unobserved components (UC) models are widely used to estimate stochastic trends in macroeconomic time series, with the existence of a stochastic trend typically motivated by a stationarity test. However, given the small sample sizes available for most macroeconomic variables, standard Lagrange multiplier tests of stationarity will perform poorly when the data are highly persistent. To address this problem, we propose the alternative use of a likelihood ratio test of stationarity based on a UC model and demonstrate that a bootstrap version of this test has far better small-sample properties for empirically-relevant data generating processes than bootstrap versions of the standard tests. An application to U.S. real GDP produces stronger support for the presence of large permanent shocks when using the likelihood ratio test as compared to standard tests.

Suggested Citation

  • James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2012-41a
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2012-41.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2015. "How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 791-815, June.
    2. Enders, Walter & Li, Jing, 2015. "Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 71-81.

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    Keywords

    media and democracy; corruption; defamation; chilling effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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