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Maximum Likelihood Estimation for MA(1) Processes with a Root on or near the Unit Circle

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  • Davis, Richard A.
  • Dunsmuir, William T.M.

Abstract

This paper considers maximum likelihood estimation for the moving average parameter θ in an MA(1) model when θ is equal to or close to 1. A derivation of the limit distribution of the estimate θLM, defined as the largest of the local maximizers of the likelihood, is given here for the first time. The theory presented covers, in a unified way, cases where the true parameter is strictly inside the unit circle as well as the noninvertible case where it is on the unit circle. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator subMLE is also described and shown to differ, but only slightly, from that of θLM. Of practical significance is the fact that the asymptotic distribution for either estimate is surprisingly accurate even for small sample sizes and for values of the moving average parameter considerably far from the unit circle.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Richard A. & Dunsmuir, William T.M., 1996. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for MA(1) Processes with a Root on or near the Unit Circle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:01:p:1-29_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Richard A. & Song, Li, 2012. "Functional convergence of stochastic integrals with application to statistical inference," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 725-757.
    2. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2009. "Construction of Stationarity Tests with Less Size Distortions," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 87-105, June.
    3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2009. "A Gaussian Test for Cointegration," Microeconomics Working Papers 22013, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Larsson, Rolf, 2014. "A likelihood ratio type test for invertibility in moving average processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 489-501.
    6. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2008. "New exact ML estimation and inference for a Gaussian MA(1) process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 172-176, April.
    7. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. McElroy, Tucker S. & Jach, Agnieszka, 2023. "Identification of the differencing operator of a non-stationary time series via testing for zeroes in the spectral density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. Jörg Breitung & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "When bubbles burst: econometric tests based on structural breaks," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 911-930, November.
    10. Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 1998. "Gaussian likelihood-based inference for non-invertible MA(1) processes with SS noise," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 99-122, September.
    11. Jaap Geluk & Liang Peng & Casper G. de Vries, 1999. "Convolutions of Heavy Tailed Random Variables and Applications to Portfolio Diversification and MA(1) Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-088/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Hirano, Keisuke & Wright, Jonathan H., 2022. "Analyzing cross-validation for forecasting with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 139-154.
    13. George Halkos & Ilias Kevork, 2007. "Critical values for testing a unit root in finite samples from the MA(1)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 191-195.
    14. Richard A. Davis & William T. M. Dunsmuir, 1997. "Least Absolute Deviation Estimation for Regression with ARMA Errors," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 481-497, April.
    15. Yabe, Ryota, 2017. "Asymptotic distribution of the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator under moderate deviation from a unit root in MA(1)," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 220-226.
    16. Yang, Yaxing & Ling, Shiqing & Wang, Qiying, 2022. "Consistency of global LSE for MA(1) models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    18. YABE, Ryota & 矢部, 竜太, 2014. "Asymptotic Distribution of the Conditional Sum of Squares Estimator Under Moderate Deviation From a Unit Root in MA(1)," Discussion Papers 2014-19, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
    21. Josef Arlt, 2023. "The problem of annual inflation rate indicator," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2772-2788, July.
    22. Robert Paige & A. Trindade & R. Wickramasinghe, 2014. "Extensions of saddlepoint-based bootstrap inference," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(5), pages 961-981, October.
    23. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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