IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sur/surrec/1605.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Hazard of Being an English Football League Manager: Empirical Estimates from the 2002/3 Season

Author

Listed:
  • Ray Bachan

    (University of Brighton)

  • Barry Reilly

    (University of Sussex)

  • Robert Witt

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model hazard rates for club managers in the 2002/3 season. Nearly one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club in that season. We model the hazard on the basis of a spell at risk, rather than the individual, using a standard logistic model. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within the discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager’s exit. A variety of individual specific human capital covariates were found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects was detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Bachan & Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2005. "The Hazard of Being an English Football League Manager: Empirical Estimates from the 2002/3 Season," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1605, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1605
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2005/DP16-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sueyoshi, Glenn T, 1995. "A Class of Binary Response Models for Grouped Duration Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 411-431, Oct.-Dec..
    2. Chris Hope, 2003. "When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(11), pages 1167-1176, November.
    3. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    4. Robinson, Peter M, 1982. "On the Asymptotic Properties of Estimators of Models Containing Limited Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 27-41, January.
    5. Katz, Ethan, 2001. "Bias in Conditional and Unconditional Fixed Effects Logit Estimation," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 379-384, January.
    6. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    7. Lancaster,Tony, 1992. "The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521437899, September.
    8. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    9. Rick Audas & Stephen Dobson & John Goddard, 1999. "Organizational performance and managerial turnover," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 305-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefano d’Addona & Axel Kind, 2014. "Forced Manager Turnovers in English Soccer Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 150-179, April.
    2. Frick, Bernd & Barros, Carlos Pestana & Prinz, Joachim, 2010. "Analysing head coach dismissals in the German "Bundesliga" with a mixed logit approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 151-159, January.
    3. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
    4. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Lucas M. Besters & Jan C. Ours & Martin A. Tuijl, 2016. "Effectiveness of In-Season Manager Changes in English Premier League Football," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 335-356, September.
    6. van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin, 2014. "In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams," CEPR Discussion Papers 10191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Thomas (T.L.P.R.) Peeters & Stefan Szymanski & Marko Terviö, 2017. "The inefficient advantage of experience in the market for football managers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-116/VII, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R Bachan & B Reilly & R Witt, 2008. "The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(7), pages 884-891, July.
    2. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited. Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Papers 2010:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2009. "Survival and Death in International Trade - Discrete-Time Durations of EU Imports," Working Papers 2009:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
    5. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
    6. Richard Layte & Tim Callan, 2001. "Unemployment, Welfare Benefits and the Financial Incentive to Work," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 32(2), pages 103-129.
    7. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2006. "The (mis)specification of discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogenity: a Monte Carlo study," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-53, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Maria Elena Bontempi & Luca Lambertini & Giuseppe Parigi, 2024. "Exploring the innovative effort: duration models and heterogeneity," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 587-656, September.
    9. Laisney, François & Pohlmeier, Winfried & Staat, Matthias, 1991. "Estimation of labour supply functions using panel data: a survey," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-05, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Fossen, Frank M. & König, Johannes, 2015. "Public health insurance and entry into self-employment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112934, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    12. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    13. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    14. Matteo Picchio & Stefano Staffolani, 2019. "Does apprenticeship improve job opportunities? A regression discontinuity approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 23-60, January.
    15. Dickerson, Andrew P. & Gibson, Heather D. & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002. "Takeover risk and the market for corporate control: the experience of British firms in the 1970s and 1980s," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1167-1195, October.
    16. Hess Wolfgang & Tutz Gerhard & Gertheiss Jan, 2016. "A Flexible Link Function for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(4), pages 455-481, August.
    17. Aysit TANSEL & H. Mehmet TASCI, 2001. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey," Middle East and North Africa 330400055, EcoMod.
    18. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank & Kritikos, Alexander, 2010. "The impact of risk attitudes on entrepreneurial survival," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 45-63, October.
    19. Marco Caliendo & Frank M Fossen & Alexander S Kritikos, 2022. "Personality characteristics and the decision to hire [Do the unemployed become successful entrepreneurs?]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 736-761.
    20. M. A. Ben Halima & V. Hyafil-Solelhac & M. Koubi & C. Regaert, 2015. "The Effects of the Complementary Sickness Benefits (CSB) on Sick Leave Duration: an Approach Based on Collective Bargaining Agreements," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2015-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometrics; sports;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ioannis Lazopoulos (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desuruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.