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Second Leg Home Advantage: A study on the Brazilian soccer cup

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Acioly Teixeira
  • Marcio Issao Nakane

Abstract

This study examines the existence of Second Leg Home Advantage (SLHA) in soccer knockout matches, focusing on the Brazilian Cup. Using an instrumentalvariables approach, we construct a team quality control variable based on betting odds. Our findings indicate a significant SLHA effect, with home teams in the second leg winning between 53.9% and 55.8% of matches, after controlling for team strength. We further explore the conditional impact of first-leg results, showing that a draw in the first leg increases a second-leg home team’s probability of advancing to over 64%. Contrary to common belief, the away goals rule does not significantly affect outcomes. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on SLHA and suggest that playing the second leg at home provides a meaningful competitive advantage. The findings have implications for tournament design and team strategy in knockout competitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Acioly Teixeira & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2025. "Second Leg Home Advantage: A study on the Brazilian soccer cup," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2025_02, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 24 Mar 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2025wpecon2
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    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Teixeira_Nakane_02WP.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    home advantage; second leg home advantage; soccer; Brazilian soccer cup;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

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