IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2024wpecon8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting Bubbles in the Brazilian Commercial Real Estate Market: 2012-2023

Author

Listed:
  • Enrico Campos de Mira
  • Wilfredo Leiva Maldonado

Abstract

This research examines the dynamics of commercial real estate prices in the Brazilian market, exploring the potential presence of speculative movements within the real estate market for the period 2012-2023. The study utilizes a conventional present value asset pricing model with a consistent discount factor and employs established bubble tests from the finance literature. These tests encompass assessments for explosive bubbles, periodic bubbles, multiple explosive bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. As a result, this approach allows us to diagnose unsustainable trends in the trajectory of real estate asset prices, should speculative bubbles be detected within the series. Utilizing data from the Fipezap survey provided by the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE), the study identifies evidence of periods marked by price exuberance, as indicated by the explosive bubble test and the multiple bubble test for some cities and the national price index. However, using the corresponding tests, no evidence of neither periodically collapsing bubbles nor intrinsic bubbles was found across any of the considered cities

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Campos de Mira & Wilfredo Leiva Maldonado, 2024. "Detecting Bubbles in the Brazilian Commercial Real Estate Market: 2012-2023," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_08, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Mira_Maldonado_08WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Estate; Speculative Bubbles; Brazilian Empirical Analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.