IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boi/wpaper/2016.06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets With Irregular Dividend Distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Itamar Caspi

    (Bank of Israel)

  • Meital Graham

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

Recursive right-tailed unit root tests have recently become a popular tool to test the existence of stock price bubbles. These tests require continuous data on dividend distribution that is not always available, in particular when it comes to sectoral indexes or individual stocks. In this paper we show that it is possible to circumvent this problem by applying the test to an equity bubble using the book-to-market ratio. We illustrate our framework by testing for a bubble in the Israeli stock market, where data on continuous dividend distribution are uncommon.

Suggested Citation

  • Itamar Caspi & Meital Graham, 2016. "Testing for Bubbles in Stock Markets With Irregular Dividend Distribution," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.06, Bank of Israel.
    • Handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2016.06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://boiwebrepec.azurefd.net/RePEc/boi/wpaper/WP_2016.06.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    5. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    6. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 246, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & Luis Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in the BRICS stock markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 646-660, September.
    9. Alexakis, Christos & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Dowling, Michael, 2017. "Do cointegrated commodities bubble together? the case of hog, corn, and soybean," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 96-102.
    10. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    12. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2019. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(6), pages 1336-1361, December.
    13. Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
    14. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Christos Alexakis & Guillaume Bagnarosa & Michael Dowling, 2017. "Do cointegrated commodities bubble together? the case of hog, corn, and soybean," Post-Print hal-02002169, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Emily J. Whitehouse & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2023. "Real‐Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 482-513, June.
    3. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
    3. Fatima, Hira & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Exuberance Behavior in Agricultural Commodities of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nico Frederick Katzke, 2015. "Identifying Periods of US Housing Market Explosivity," Working Papers 15-03, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    5. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    6. Laurent, Sébastien & Shi, Shuping, 2020. "Volatility estimation and jump detection for drift–diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 259-290.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    8. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "Characterising the South African Business Cycle: Is GDP Difference-Stationary or Trend-Stationary in a Markov-Switching Setup?," Working Papers 201529, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Lee, Ji Hyung & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Asset pricing with financial bubble risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 590-622.
    11. Hansen, Jacob H. & Møller, Stig V. & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Schütte, Christian M., 2024. "House price bubbles under the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 246, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.
    14. Basse, Tobias & Klein, Tony & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wegener, Christoph, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and the dot.com-bubble: Can dividend policy rescue the efficient market hypothesis?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Pastor, Daniel J. & Ewing, Bradley T., 2022. "Is there evidence of mild explosive behavior in Alaska North Slope crude oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    17. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    18. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Gabriele Mingoli, 2023. "Observation-Driven filters for Time- Series with Stochastic Trends and Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-065/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Mar 2024.
    19. Wegener, Christoph & Kruse, Robinson & Basse, Tobias, 2019. "The walking debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 382-402.
    20. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Robust econometric inference with mixed integrated and mildly explosive regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 433-450.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; stock markets; book to market; explosive root; GSADF test; Israel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boi:wpaper:2016.06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yossi Yakhin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boigvil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.