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Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market: 1960-2011

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  • Ogonna Nneji
  • Chris Brooks
  • Charles Ward

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclicality and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2013. "Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market: 1960-2011," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 121-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjerxx:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:121-152
    DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2013.12091360
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
    2. Foglia, Matteo & Miglietta, Federica, 2024. "Does every cloud (bubble) have a silver lining? An investigation of ESG financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    4. Iliyasu, Jamilu & Rafindadi Sanusi, Aliyu & Suleiman, Dahiru, 2019. "Testing For Multiple Bubble Episodes In Nigerian Stock Exchange Market," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 6(6), pages 13-26, June.
    5. Rose Neng Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2020. "A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 505-547, October.
    6. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Enrico Campos de Mira & Wilfredo Leiva Maldonado, 2024. "Detecting Bubbles in the Brazilian Commercial Real Estate Market: 2012-2023," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_08, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Kouwenberg, Roy & Zwinkels, Remco, 2014. "Forecasting the US housing market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    9. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2018. "Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3196-3229, June.
    10. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    11. Phuong Lan Le & Anh Tuan Do & Anh Ngoc Pham, 2023. "What Influenced Hanoi’s Apartment Price Bubble between 2010 and 2021?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Frank J. Fabozzi & Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "Detecting Bubbles in the US and UK Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 469-513, May.
    13. Kai Zheng & Yuying Li & Weidong Xu, 2021. "Regime switching model estimation: spectral clustering hidden Markov model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 297-319, August.
    14. Wai-Mun Chia & Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 872-885, February.
    15. Wichita State University, 2016. "Contagion, Interdependence and Diversification across Regional UK Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 327-351.
    16. Sheridan Titman & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2014. "The Dynamics of Housing Prices," NBER Working Papers 20418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Li, Yaoyao & Qi, Yuan & Liu, Licheng & Hou, Yuchen & Fu, Shuya & Yao, Jingtao & Zhu, Daolin, 2022. "Effect of increasing the rental housing supply on house prices: Evidence from China’s large and medium-sized cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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