IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2019wpecon37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Bad Year? Climate Variability and the Wine Industry in Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo A. Haddad
  • Patricio Aroca, Pilar Jano, Ademir Rocha, Bruno Pimenta

Abstract

Short-term climate conditions may affect crop yields and vintage quality and, as a consequence, wine prices and vineyards’ earnings. In this paper, we use a CGE model for Chile, which incorporates detailed information about the value chain of the wine sector in the country. Using information for the 2015-2016 harvest, we calibrate climate shocks associated with a bad year for the wine industry in Chile, when premature rains occurred in important wine regions, reducing the area harvested and leading to wines with less concentrated flavors, particularly for reds. We model the climate shocks as a technical change in the grape-producing sector (quantity effect). Moreover, we model quality effects as a shift in the foreign demand curve for Chilean wine. Given the specific economic environment in the model and the proposed simulation, it is possible to note the reduction of Chilean real GDP by about 0.067%. By decomposing this result, we verify that the quality effect has a slightly greater weight compared to the quantity effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo A. Haddad & Patricio Aroca, Pilar Jano, Ademir Rocha, Bruno Pimenta, 2019. "A Bad Year? Climate Variability and the Wine Industry in Chile," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_37, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Haddad_Aroca_Jano_Rocha_Pimenta_37WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashenfelter, Orley & Storchmann, Karl, 2016. "Climate Change and Wine: A Review of the Economic Implications," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 105-138, May.
    2. Ashenfelter, Orley, 2010. "Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 40-52, April.
    3. Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.
    4. Ramirez, Carlos D., 2008. "Wine Quality, Wine Prices, and the Weather: Is Napa “Different”?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 114-131, January.
    5. van Leeuwen, Cornelis & Darriet, Philippe, 2016. "The Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture and Wine Quality," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 150-167, May.
    6. Eduardo Haddad, 2009. "Interregional Computable General Equilibrium Models," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Michael Sonis & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Tool Kits in Regional Science, chapter 4, pages 119-154, Springer.
    7. Michael Sonis & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), 2009. "Tool Kits in Regional Science," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-00627-2.
    8. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer & Marinos E. Tsigas, 2007. "Regionalising results from a detailed CGE model: Macro, industry and state effects in the U.S. of removing major tariffs and quotas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 31-55, March.
    9. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85, Elsevier.
    10. Oczkowski, Edward, 2016. "Hedonic wine price functions with different prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(2), April.
    11. Günter Schamel & Kym Anderson, 2019. "Wine Quality and Varietal, Regional and Winery Reputations: Hedonic Prices for Australia and New Zealand," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 10, pages 225-253, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amogh Prakasha Kumar & Richard Watt & Laura Meriluoto, 2021. "New Evidence on Using Expert Ratings to Proxy for Wine Quality in Climate Change Research," Working Papers in Economics 21/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Bao, Alex & Bontems, Philippe & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Chiappini, Raphael, 2024. "Exporters’ behaviour in the face of climate volatility," TSE Working Papers 24-1552, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 2020. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899, May.
    4. Vincent Hoang & Takao Iida & Shigeru Matsumoto & Natsuki Watanabe & Clevo Wilson, 2016. "Consumer’s comparison between local and imported organic products: a hedonic analysis of the Japanese table wine market," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 405-415, December.
    5. Oczkowski, Edward, 2019. "The relation between Australian wine show results and prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(2), July.
    6. Esmedekh Lkhanaajav, 2016. "CoPS-style CGE modelling and analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-264, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. repec:ags:ijag24:347275 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Swinnen, J. & Meloni, G. & Haeck, C., 2018. "What is the Value of Terroir? Historical Evidence from Champagne and Bordeaux," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277221, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Storchmann, K., 2011. "Wine Economics: Emergence, Developments, Topics," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 50(3), September.
    10. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Analyzing the risks of an illiquid and global asset: The case of fine wine," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-25.
    11. Jacobo Núñez & David Martín‐Barroso & Francisco J. Velázquez, 2024. "The hedonic price model for the wine market: A systematic and comparative review of the literature," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 247-264, March.
    12. D. Santillán & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & V. Sotes, 0. "Climate change risks and adaptation: new indicators for Mediterranean viticulture," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 881-899.
    13. Daniela Benavente, 2010. "Geographical Indications: The Economics of Claw-Back," IHEID Working Papers 11-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Algieri, Bernardina & Iania, Leonardo & Leccadito, Arturo & Meloni, Giulia, 2024. "Message in a bottle: Forecasting wine prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 64-91, February.
    15. Liang, Jiaji & Hu, Wuyang, 2018. "Hedonic Price Analysis: A View of the Wine Industry in Kentucky," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274050, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Raj Chandra & Gabriel E. Lade & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Geographical Indications and Welfare: Evidence from the US Wine Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp628, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    17. Antonis Michis & Anna Markidou, 2013. "Determinants of retail wine prices: evidence from Cyprus," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 267-280, August.
    18. Christopher R. Gustafson & Travis J. Lybbert & Daniel A. Sumner, 2016. "Consumer sorting and hedonic valuation of wine attributes: exploiting data from a field experiment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 91-103, January.
    19. Eduardo A. Haddad & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena, 2022. "Impacto regional de las regalías en Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. World Bank, 2008. "Brazil : Evaluating the Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Lowering Transportation Costs," World Bank Publications - Reports 8083, The World Bank Group.
    21. Delmas, Magali A. & Gergaud, Olivier & Lim, Jinghui, 2016. "Does Organic Wine Taste Better? An Analysis of Experts' Ratings," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 329-354, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate; viticulture; wine; computable general equilibrium; Chile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.