Sanctions: Strike as a War, Perceived as an Economic Crisis

This research note provides preliminary results, observations, and insights from an ongoing project investigating the impact of sanctions, particularly following the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), on Iranian public opinion. The project aims to explore why these sanctions did not trigger a "rally around the flag" effect, commonly seen in times of foreign intervention or conflict. Instead, the sanctions revealed deep internal divisions and widespread dissatisfaction with the Iranian government's mismanagement of the economic crisis. The central hypothesis of this research is that sanctions exhibit a dual nature. On the one hand, sanctions act as a form of foreign intervention that could potentially lead to the unifying "rally around the flag" effect. On the other hand, they function as an economic crisis, which amplifies public frustration and dissatisfaction with the sitting government. This research emphasizes the importance of understanding Iranian public opinion and behavior, in order to determine whether sanctions were perceived primarily as an act of war or as an economic catastrophe.