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Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey

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  • Budina, Nina
  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Budina, Nina & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4169, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sweder Wijnbergen & Alexander France, 2012. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 Years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 219-236, September.
    2. World Bank, 2007. "Montenegro - Debt Sustainability Analysis," World Bank Publications - Reports 12493, The World Bank Group.
    3. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2015. "The Welfare and Stabilization Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Working Papers 2015-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    4. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(2), pages 117-144, April.
    5. Frank, Nathaniel & Ley, Eduardo, 2008. "Refinements to the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4709, The World Bank.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
    7. Elvis Munyaradzi Ganyaupfu, 2014. "Fiscal Sustainability in South Africa: Recent Evidence," Journal of Social Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 159-167.
    8. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    9. Bandiera, Luca & Budina, Nina & Klijn, Michel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "The"how to"of fiscal sustainability : a technical manual for using the fiscal sustainability tool," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4170, The World Bank.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; External Debt; Economic Stabilization; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance;
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