IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2002-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Papa M N'Diaye
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton

Abstract

Using data on long-term interest rates for 17 industrial countries, this paper develops some simple measures of monetary policy credibility and then tests if such measures improve the out-of-sample forecasts of conventional models of the inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some evidence in favor of the Lucas critique by showing that the short-run unemployment-inflation trade-off tends to improve in countries that are successful in providing low and stable inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/220, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=16093
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    2. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    4. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides and Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 247, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David G. Barr & John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1731, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    9. Michael Bleaney & Douglas Laxton, 2003. "Real Interest Rates And Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Indexed Bonds," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 65-77, January.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Guy Debelle & Jenny Wilkinson, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Inflation Process: Some Lessons from an Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    13. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bank of England working papers 24, Bank of England.
    14. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:1:p:11-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    17. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "The ECB'S Money Pillar: An Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2003/082, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2013. "Does Inflation Targeting Help Reduce Financial Dollarization?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1253-1274, October.
    3. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    4. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, July.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    6. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"," Working Papers 2006/8, Czech National Bank.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2009/094, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Global Dimension of Inflation – Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 103-122, February.
    9. Bulir, Ales & Hurnik, Jaromir, 2006. "The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 385-404, December.
    10. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Doug & Naknoi, Kanda, 2005. "On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods," Conference papers 331319, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 2015/132, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilization Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(5-6), pages 220-242, May.
    14. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 2007/207, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chmielewski, Tomasz & Kot, Adam, 2006. "Impact of globalisation? Changes in the MTM in Poland," MPRA Paper 8386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Buli­r, Ales & Hurni­k, Jaromi­r, 2008. "Why has inflation in the European Union stopped converging?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 341-347.
    17. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Staff Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada.
    18. Ms. Dora M Iakova, 2007. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2007/076, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
    4. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    5. Ray Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2527, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
    6. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    7. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
    8. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    9. Ray Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2527, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
    10. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    11. Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1525, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    13. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
    14. Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2008. "Debt targets and fiscal sustainability in an era of monetary independence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 165-187, July.
    15. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Supply Side of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 20, Econometric Society.
    16. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    17. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
    18. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
    19. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    20. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.