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Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France

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  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

La situation conjoncturelle de l'ensemble des grands pays développés a fortement évolué au cours de la période 2007-2010. Or de nombreuses mesures de politique économique ont été maintenues. C'est le cas notamment de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires et son exonération de cotisations sociales, mesure centrale dans le dispositif du gouvernement français. Dans ce travail nous proposons des simulations de ce dispositif en fonction de la conjoncture dans laquelle celui-ci est mis en place. D'après nos simulations, une telle mesure apparaît pro cyclique et donc mal adaptée à la situation actuelle de l'économie française. Par ailleurs, notons que même dans le cas d'une bonne conjoncture, ce dispositif ne serait pas financé. Sans financement, cette mesure viendrait creuser le déficit public et s'apparenterait à une relance budgétaire. Son financement par une hausse des prélèvements en changerait radicalement la nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01069450, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01069450
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01069450
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    3. Mireille Elbaum, 2011. "Le financement de la protection sociale : quelles perspectives au-delà des solutions miracles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèle macroéconométrique; cycle économique; NAIRU; courbe de Phillips; hystérésis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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