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A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

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  • D. THORLEUCHTER
  • D. VAN DEN POEL
  • A. PRINZIE
  • -

Abstract

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified. A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field 'defence' is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology generates useful insights for government organizations to direct technology investments.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie & -, 2010. "A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/632, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/632
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    Cited by:

    1. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    2. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improved Multilevel Security with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/811, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Tamar C Weenen & Bahar Ramezanpour & Esther S Pronker & Harry Commandeur & Eric Claassen, 2013. "Food-Pharma Convergence in Medical Nutrition– Best of Both Worlds?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Venugopalan, Subhashini & Rai, Varun, 2015. "Topic based classification and pattern identification in patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 236-250.
    6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Semantic Compared Cross Impact Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/862, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
    8. Jongchan Kim & Joonhyuck Lee & Gabjo Kim & Sangsung Park & Dongsik Jang, 2016. "A Hybrid Method of Analyzing Patents for Sustainable Technology Management in Humanoid Robot Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.
    9. Altuntas, Serkan & Dereli, Turkay & Kusiak, Andrew, 2015. "Analysis of patent documents with weighted association rules," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 249-262.
    10. Ardito, Lorenzo & D'Adda, Diego & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio, 2018. "Mapping innovation dynamics in the Internet of Things domain: Evidence from patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 317-330.
    11. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Quantitative Cross Impact Analysis with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/861, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Jang, Hyun Jin & Woo, Han-Gyun & Lee, Changyong, 2017. "Hawkes process-based technology impact analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 511-529.
    14. Gauch, Stephan & Blind, Knut, 2015. "Technological convergence and the absorptive capacity of standardisation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 236-249.
    15. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Technology Classification with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/814, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Joung, Junegak & Kim, Kwangsoo, 2017. "Monitoring emerging technologies for technology planning using technical keyword based analysis from patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 281-292.
    17. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    18. Kadaifci, Cigdem & Asan, Umut & Bozdag, Erhan, 2020. "A new 2-additive Choquet integral based approach to qualitative cross-impact analysis considering interaction effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    20. Puccetti, Giovanni & Giordano, Vito & Spada, Irene & Chiarello, Filippo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2023. "Technology identification from patent texts: A novel named entity recognition method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    21. Panula-Ontto, Juha, 2019. "The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 292-308.

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