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Maximum entropy estimator for the predictability of energy commodity market time series

Author

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  • Francesco Benedetto
  • Gaetano Giunta
  • Loretta Mastroeni

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel method for assessing the predictability of energy market time series, by predicting the entropy of the series. According to conventional entropy-based analysis where the entropy is always ex-post estimated), high entropy values characterize unpredictable series, while more stable series exhibits lesser entropy values. Here, we predict ex-ante the entropy regarding the future behavior of a series, based on the observation of historical data. Our prediction is performed according to the optimum least squares minimization algorithm. Preliminary results, applied to energy commodities, show the efficacy of the proposed method for application to energy market time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Benedetto & Gaetano Giunta & Loretta Mastroeni, 2014. "Maximum entropy estimator for the predictability of energy commodity market time series," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0192, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0192
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    File URL: http://dipeco.uniroma3.it/db/docs/wp%20192.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Forbidden patterns, permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2854-2864.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entropy analysis; market efficiency; energy commodity; energy time;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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