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Russia's Possible Demographic Scenarios and Their Consequences
[Возможные Демографические Сценарии России И Их Последствия]

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  • Arkhangelskiy , Vladimir (Архангельский, Владимир)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Shulgin, Sergei (Шульгин, Сергей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Efremov, Igor (Ефремов, Игорь)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Pustovalov, Denis Nikolaevich (Пустовалов, Денис Николаевич)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

The paper substantiates the methodology of construction of scenarios for the main demographic processes: fertility, mortality and migration. For the four scenarios (most likely, pessimistic, optimistic, and super optimistic) calculations of demographic trajectories are made. This paper presents the trajectory and scenarios for Russia as a whole. For derived demographic trajectories of the analysis of the population structure and describes the possible consequences of the upcoming changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Arkhangelskiy , Vladimir (Архангельский, Владимир) & Shulgin, Sergei (Шульгин, Сергей) & Efremov, Igor (Ефремов, Игорь) & Pustovalov, Denis Nikolaevich (Пустовалов, Денис Николаевич), 2016. "Russia's Possible Demographic Scenarios and Their Consequences [Возможные Демографические Сценарии России И Их Последствия]," Working Papers 761, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:761
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    Keywords

    demography; scenarios; Russia;
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