IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rjr/wpiecf/161001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main aim of this article is to explain the evolution of real GDP rate in European Union (EU-28) over the period 2002-2013 using panel data sets. Several dynamic models (6 models) explained the real GDP growth, an increase in the real GDP rate in the previous period with 1% generating an increase in the real GDP rate in the current period with a value between 0.3% and 0.4%. A fixed effects model with individual effects and effects in time explained the real GDP growth using as explanatory variable the employment. Moreover, a panel data model is estimated, but the assumptions related to errors are not checked. Simulations are made for 2014 and 2015 using the dynamic model and the fixed effects model, the latter anticipating higher GDP rate than most of the dynamic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2016. "The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 161001, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:161001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf161001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Marija Trpkova & Biljana Tashevska, 2011. "Determinants Of Economic Growth In South - East Europe: A Panel Data Approach," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 7(1), pages 12-15, January.
    3. Menbere T. Workie, 2005. "Determinants of Growth and Convergence in Transitive Economies in the 1990s: Empirical Evidence from a Panel Data," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 239-251.
    4. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nihat Taș & Ali Hepșen & Emrah Önder, 2013. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth using Panel Data," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 1-4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harkat, Tahar, 2019. "The Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on Industry Value Added in the Mediterranean Region," MPRA Paper 92492, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kapingura Forget Mingiri & S.I Ikhide & A Tsegaye, 2016. "The Relationship between External Financial Flows and Economic Growth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC): The Role of Institutions," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(1), pages 87-103.
    2. Simionescu Mihaela, 2018. "What Drives Economic Growth in Some CEE Countries?," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 46-56, March.
    3. Mara Leticia Rojas & María María Ibáñez Martín & Carlos Dabús, 2023. "Is Debt Always Harmful for Economic Growth? Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 292, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    5. Asit Mohanty & Suresh Kumar Patra & Satyendra Kumar & Avipsa Mohanty, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Effect of Public Debt on Economic Growth in India in the Post-Reform Era," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(11), pages 692-705, November.
    6. Serhan ÇIFTÇIOĞLU & Amin SOKHANVAR, 2018. "External Debt- Economic Growth Nexus in Selected CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-100, December.
    7. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    8. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2017. "Energy subsidies, public investment and endogenous growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 693-709.
    9. Irina BILAN, 2014. "A Critical Analysis Of The Factors Lying Behind Recent Public Debt Accumulation In Romania," Journal of Public Administration, Finance and Law, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 6(6), pages 93-105, December.
    10. Sharafat, Ali & Hamid, Waqas & Muhammad, Asghar & Raheel Abbas, Kalroo & Muhammad, Ayaz & Mukhtyar, Khan, 2013. "Foreign Capital and Investment in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 55640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2013.
    11. Imbs, Jean & Rancière, Romain, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," CEPR Discussion Papers 5210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2007. "External Debt and Economic Reform: Does a Pain Reliever Delay the Necessary Treatment?," IMF Working Papers 2007/050, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Rajbhushan J NAYAK & Vishwanath PANDIT & Gopakumar K. U, 2020. "Structural modeling of fiscal structure for policy analysis: A case study of India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 139-160, Autumn.
    14. Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Jan M. Podivinsky, 2015. "Federal government debt and economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 15(3), pages 253-256, July.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tan, Clifford, 2013. "The contribution of university rankings to country's GDP per capita," MPRA Paper 53900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2018. "An Analysis of Public Debt Servicing in Zambia: Trends, Reforms and Challenges," Croatian International Relations Review, Sciendo, vol. 24(81), pages 113-136, May.
    18. Chinwuba Okafor & Ibrahim Shaibu, 2016. "Modelling Economic Growth Function in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 84-93.
    19. Drine, Imed & Nabi, M. Sami, 2010. "Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 487-495, March.
    20. Asiamah, Oliver & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Ahmed, Bossman & Agyei, Ellen Animah, 2022. "Natural resource dependence and the Dutch disease: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Stylianou Tasos, 2012. "Does Government Debt Promote Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis with Structural Breaks for the Economy of China," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 229-248, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP rate; dynamic model; fixed effects model; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:161001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Corina Saman to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.