IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2018i4p85-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Debt- Economic Growth Nexus in Selected CEE Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Serhan ÇIFTÇIOĞLU

    (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Cyprus.)

  • Amin SOKHANVAR

    (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Cyprus.)

Abstract

This paper presents new evidence regarding the potential adverse effects of external debt on long-run economic growth in a sample of twelve emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The empirical findings of the paper suggest that policy makers in many of CEE countries should be encouraged to evaluate the long-run costs and benefits of existing fully liberalized capital account regimes which allow both private and public sectors to finance their expenditures by external borrowing. These basic insights of the paper are obtained from the application of panel regression and Granger causality analysis for a sample of twelve CEE countries using annual data for the period of 1995- 2014. The Granger causality tests have shown that there is a statistically significant causal effect of external debt on economic growth in eight countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhan ÇIFTÇIOĞLU & Amin SOKHANVAR, 2018. "External Debt- Economic Growth Nexus in Selected CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-100, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:4:p:85-100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_18/rjef4_2018p85-100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pietro Garibaldi & Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-6.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
    3. Mr. Tito Cordella & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 2005/223, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Riccardo Faini & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Adjustment, Investment and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 6, pages 137-165, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Qayyum, Unbreen & Din, Musleh-ud & Haider, Adnan, 2014. "Foreign aid, external debt and governance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 41-52.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Oks, Daniel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Mexico after the debt crisis: is growth sustainable?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 155-178, June.
    8. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bert Hofman & Helmut Reisen, 1991. "Some evidence on debt-related determinants of investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 281-299, June.
    10. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    12. repec:bla:kyklos:v:45:y:1992:i:3:p:363-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Deshpande, Ashwini, 1997. "The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 169-187, February.
    15. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    16. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    17. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Semmler, Willi & Tahri, Ibrahim, 2017. "Current account imbalances: A new approach to assess external debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 161-170.
    19. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2008. "Short-Term Determinants of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 24-42, January.
    20. Mohsin Nawaz & Maria Qureshi & Naveed Wahid Awan, 2012. "Does External Debt Causes Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 131-144, March.
    21. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Investment Slowdown in Developing Countries During the 1980s: Debt Overhang or Foreign Capital Inflows?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 363-378, August.
    22. Erdal Karagol, 2002. "The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 39-64.
    23. Siddique, Abu & Selvanathan, E.A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2016. "The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 874-894.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    2. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    3. Yilmaz BAYAR & Mahmut Unsal SASMAZ, 2019. "Foreign borrowing, foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth in European Union transition economies," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 107-125, December.
    4. Charles Bahr & Lee Hui Shan & Alfred Lam, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Evidence from Canada," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.
    5. Oyadeyi, Olajide O. & Agboola, Olayode W. & Okunade, Solomon O. & Osinubi, Tolulope T., 2024. "The debt-growth nexus and debt sustainability in Nigeria: Are there reasons to be concerned?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 129-152.
    6. Bardhyl Dauti & Shiret Elezi, 2022. "Economic growth in the Central East European Union and the Western Balkan countries in the course of Stability and Growth Pact and COVID-19," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 40(1), pages 29-61.
    7. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    8. Minhaj ud-Din & Muhammad Azam Khan & Muhammad Tariq, 2020. "External Debt - Blessing or Curse: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 235-246.
    9. Felix Fofana N¡¯Zue, 2020. "Is External Debt Hampering Growth in the ECOWAS Region?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-54, April.
    10. Charles O Manasseh & Felicia C Abada & Ebelechukwu L Okiche & Ogochukwu Okanya & Ifeoma C Nwakoby & Peter Offu & Anuli R Ogbuagu & Chiedozie O Okafor & Paul C Obidike & Nnenna G Nwonye, 2022. "External debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does governance matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Josip Tica & Viktor Viljevac, 2020. "Thirty Years After: Economic Growth in Transition Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 2005, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    2. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    3. SAUNGWEME, Talknice & ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M., 2018. "Public Debt Service And Economic Growth: A Survey Of International Literature," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(2), pages 129-142.
    4. repec:eco:journ1:2014-02-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Wamboye, Evelyn, 2012. "External debt, trade and FDI on economic growth of least developed countries," MPRA Paper 39031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Makun, Keshmeer, 2021. "External debt and economic growth in Pacific Island countries: A linear and nonlinear analysis of Fiji Islands," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    8. Kashif Munir & Nisma Riffat Mehmood, 2018. "Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(2), pages 171-191, September.
    9. Adeniyi, Oluwatosin & Adekunle, Wasiu & Orekoya, Samuel, 2018. "Non-linear Relation between External Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Does the Investment Channel Matter?," MPRA Paper 99975, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2019.
    10. Taner Turan & Halit Yanikkaya, 2019. "External Debt, Growth and Investment for Developing Countries: The Role of Government Effectiveness," Working Papers 2019-03, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    11. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    12. Geske Dijkstra, 2013. "What Did US$18 bn Achieve? The 2005 Debt Relief to Nigeria," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31(5), pages 553-574, September.
    13. Mijiyawa, Abdoul’ Ganiou, 2024. "Does private share of public external debt support economic growth in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    14. Qayyum, Unbreen & Din, Musleh-ud & Haider, Adnan, 2014. "Foreign aid, external debt and governance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 41-52.
    15. Drine, Imed & Nabi, M. Sami, 2010. "Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 487-495, March.
    16. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-28.
    17. Taha Zaghdoudi, 2020. "Threshold Effect in the Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Specification," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(2), pages 447-456, June.
    18. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    19. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    20. Jose Noguera, 2004. "The transmission mechanism to barter," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp243, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    21. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "Debt Relief Effectiveness and Institution Building," MPRA Paper 12597, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external debt; GDP growth; investment; trade openness; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:4:p:85-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.