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Geographical Propagation of the Economic Impacts of the ISIS Conflict in Iraq

Author

Listed:
  • Araujo, Inacio F.

    (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Donaghy, Kieran P.

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University)

  • Haddad, Eduardo A.

    (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.

    (Department of Urban & Regional Planning, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

This study develops a methodology to assess the effects of extreme events. This method measures the geographic propagation of indirect impacts of disasters through supply chains. This modeling framework incorporates an inter-regional input-output system to calibrate a computable general equilibrium model. Our methodological approach includes examining the supply and demand constraints caused by the disruptive event. We also model regional resilience through input substitution possibilities. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology, we analyze the higher-order effects of the regional ISIS-created conflict in Iraq between 2014 and 2017. We also extend the general equilibrium model to downscale Iraq’s national economic accounts to the regional level. This strategy projects the post-conflict Iraqi economy at a granular level of spatial aggregation. The model produced for this analysis offers policymakers simulations to identify economic vulnerabilities at the regional and industrial levels and explore alternatives to mitigate the damage caused by extreme events.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Inacio F. & Donaghy, Kieran P. & Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2024. "Geographical Propagation of the Economic Impacts of the ISIS Conflict in Iraq," TD NEREUS 6-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:2024_006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    armed conflict; costs of war; risk analysis; disruptive events; higher-order impacts; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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