IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v38y2018i6p1306-1318.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xie
  • Adam Rose
  • Shantong Li
  • Jianwu He
  • Ning Li
  • Tariq Ali

Abstract

This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time‐path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time‐path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xie & Adam Rose & Shantong Li & Jianwu He & Ning Li & Tariq Ali, 2018. "Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1306-1318, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:6:p:1306-1318
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12948
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12948?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    2. Bilal M. Ayyub, 2014. "Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition, Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 340-355, February.
    3. Adam Rose & Gbadebo Oladosu & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2007. "Business Interruption Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the Electric Power System of Los Angeles: Customer Resilience to a Total Blackout," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 513-531, June.
    4. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    5. Jidong Wu & Ning Li & Stéphane Hallegatte & Peijun Shi & Aijun Hu & Xueqin Liu, 2012. "Regional indirect economic impact evaluation of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake," Post-Print hal-00716669, HAL.
    6. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2007. "Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 115-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fangxin Yi & Yong Tu, 2018. "An Evaluation of the Paired Assistance to Disaster-Affected Areas Program in Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Wenchuan Earthquake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Hui Zhang & Chris Dolan & Si Meng Jing & Justine Uyimleshi & Peter Dodd, 2019. "Bounce Forward: Economic Recovery in Post-Disaster Fukushima," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Zhengtao Zhang & Ning Li & Peng Cui & Hong Xu & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Jieling Feng, 2019. "How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2443-2456, November.
    4. Adam Rose, 2022. "Behavioral Economic Consequences of Disasters: A Basis for Inclusion in Benefit–Cost Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 213-233, July.
    5. Jiang, Nana & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Yanfei & Zhang, Jinning, 2024. "Impact of financial reform on urban resilience: Evidence from the financial reform pilot zones in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Sue Wing, Ian & Rose, Adam Z., 2020. "Economic consequence analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions: General equilibrium approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Jesse M. Keenan & Benjamin D. Trump & William Hynes & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Exploring the Convergence of Resilience Processes and Sustainable Outcomes in Post-COVID, Post-Glasgow Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Dennis Fok & André Stel & Andrew Burke & Roy Thurik, 2019. "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1111-1138, December.
    9. Araujo, Inacio F. & Donaghy, Kieran P. & Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2024. "Geographical Propagation of the Economic Impacts of the ISIS Conflict in Iraq," TD NEREUS 6-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    10. Dormady, Noah C. & Rose, Adam & Roa-Henriquez, Alfredo & Morin, C. Blain, 2022. "The cost-effectiveness of economic resilience," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    11. Annetta Burger & Talha Oz & William G. Kennedy & Andrew T. Crooks, 2019. "Computational Social Science of Disasters: Opportunities and Challenges," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-31, April.
    12. Dan Wei & Zhenhua Chen & Adam Rose, 2020. "Evaluating the role of resilience in reducing economic losses from disasters: A multi‐regional analysis of a seaport disruption," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1691-1722, December.
    13. Ali Jamshed & Chirag Patel & Anshul Puriya & Nimra Iqbal & Irfan Ahmad Rana & Joanna M. McMillan & Rajiv Pandey & Shahbaz Altaf & Rana Tahir Mehmood & Umair bin Saad, 2024. "Flood resilience assessment from the perspective of urban (in)formality in Surat, India: Implications for sustainable development," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(10), pages 9297-9326, August.
    14. Si-yao Wei & Wei-xing Zhou, 2024. "The resilience of China's financial markets: With a focus on the impact of its climate policy uncertainty," Papers 2409.18422, arXiv.org.
    15. An-Ting Cheng, 2023. "Spatial Concentration in Relation to Industrial Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Grant Allan & Gioele Figus & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2021. "Resilience in a behavioural/Keynesian regional model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(4), pages 858-876, June.
    17. Mena, Carlos & Karatzas, Antonios & Hansen, Carsten, 2022. "International trade resilience and the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 77-91.
    18. Weilong Wang & Jianlong Wang & Shaersaikai Wulaer & Bing Chen & Xiaodong Yang, 2021. "The Effect of Innovative Entrepreneurial Vitality on Economic Resilience Based on a Spatial Perspective: Economic Policy Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-23, September.
    19. Ling Tan & Ji Guo & Selvarajah Mohanarajah & Kun Zhou, 2021. "Can we detect trends in natural disaster management with artificial intelligence? A review of modeling practices," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2389-2417, July.
    20. Behnam Ghasemzadeh & Zahra Sadat Saeideh Zarabadi & Hamid Majedi & Mostafa Behzadfar & Ayyoob Sharifi, 2021. "A Framework for Urban Flood Resilience Assessment with Emphasis on Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions: A Qualitative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-27, July.
    21. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Bowman, Gary & Foulser-Piggott, Roxane & Beamish, Paul W, 2023. "Natural disasters and MNE internalization: Reoptimizing subsidiary governance," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    23. Pengyang Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Sipei Pan & Wanxu Chen & Hui Zhong & Ning Xu & Mingxing Zhong, 2022. "Does Resilience Exist in China’s Tourism Economy? From the Perspectives of Resistance and Recoverability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    3. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    5. Davide Antonioli & Alberto Marzucchi & Marco Modica, 2022. "Resilience, Performance and Strategies in Firms’ Reactions to the Direct and Indirect Effects of a Natural Disaster," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-565, September.
    6. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke, 2018. "Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro‐Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 804-825, April.
    8. Fynnwin Prager & Dan Wei & Adam Rose, 2017. "Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 4-19, January.
    9. Zhengtao Zhang & Ning Li & Peng Cui & Hong Xu & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Jieling Feng, 2019. "How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2443-2456, November.
    10. Juan C. Surís-Regueiro & José L. Santiago, 2016. "An Input-Output methodological proposal to quantifying socio economic impacts linked to supply shocks," Working Papers 1603, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    11. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    12. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    14. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    15. Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Samrat Chatterjee, 2014. "A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1554-1579, August.
    16. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
    17. Lorenzo Carrera & Gabriele Standardi & Francesco Bosello & Jaroslav Mysiak, 2014. "Assessing Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of a Flood Event Through the Integration of Spatial and Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Working Papers 2014.82, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Andrzej Toroj, 2018. "Generation of regional input-output tables: a spatial econometric approach with illustrative simulations for France,Germany and Poland," KAE Working Papers 2018-037, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    19. Adam Rose & Tyler Kustra, 2013. "Economic Considerations in Designing Emergency Management Institutions and Policies for Transboundary Disasters," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 446-462, March.
    20. Pradeep V. Mandapaka & Edmond Y. M. Lo, 2023. "Assessing Shock Propagation and Cascading Uncertainties Using the Input–Output Framework: Analysis of an Oil Refinery Accident in Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:6:p:1306-1318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.