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Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

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  • Jun Li
  • Douglas Crawford‐Brown
  • Mark Syddall
  • Dabo Guan

Abstract

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.

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  • Jun Li & Douglas Crawford‐Brown & Mark Syddall & Dabo Guan, 2013. "Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1908-1923, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:10:p:1908-1923
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12040
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    3. Michiyuki Yagi & Shigemi Kagawa & Shunsuke Managi & Hidemichi Fujii & Dabo Guan, 2020. "Supply Constraint from Earthquakes in Japan in Input–Output Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1811-1830, September.
    4. Araujo, Inacio F. & Donaghy, Kieran P. & Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2024. "Geographical Propagation of the Economic Impacts of the ISIS Conflict in Iraq," TD NEREUS 6-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    5. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Xi Hu & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall & Swenja Surminski & Jiashun Huang, 2019. "Multi-Scale Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Flooding: Evidence from Firm to Macro-Level Analysis in the Chinese Manufacturing Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    7. David Mendoza‐Tinoco & Yixin Hu & Zhao Zeng & Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis & Ning Zhang & Albert E. Steenge & Dabo Guan, 2020. "Flood Footprint Assessment: A Multiregional Case of 2009 Central European Floods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(8), pages 1612-1631, August.
    8. Xiaoxiang Xu & Mingqiu Liao, 2022. "Prediction of China’s Economic Structural Changes under Carbon Emission Constraints: Based on the Linear Programming Input–Output (LP-IO) Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    9. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    10. E. E. Koks & M. Bočkarjova & H. de Moel & J. C. J. H. Aerts, 2015. "Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 882-900, May.
    11. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2021. "Global supply constraints from the 2008 and COVID-19 crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 514-528.
    12. Scott Thacker & Scott Kelly & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall, 2018. "Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 134-150, January.

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