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Hierarchical random effects model for insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet

Author

Listed:
  • Desjardins, Denise

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Lu, Yang

    (Concordia University)

Abstract

We propose a hierarchical random effect model for the posterior insurance ratemaking of vehicles belonging to a fleet by allowing random effects for fleet, vehicle, and time. The model is an alternative to the gamma-Dirichlet model of Angers et al (2018), which does not allow for a closed form posterior ratemaking formula. Our theoretical extension derives a simple and tractable closed form ratemaking formula based on a hierarchical random effects specification. We estimate the corresponding econometric model and compute insurance premiums in relation to the past experience of both the vehicle and the fleet. Our econometric model can also be applied to any other dynamic count modeling application with random individual, time, and common effects, such as labor contracting, chirurgical accidents, or any other random event implying principals and many agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Desjardins, Denise & Dionne, Georges & Lu, Yang, 2021. "Hierarchical random effects model for insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet," Working Papers 21-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2021_002
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    Cited by:

    1. Dionne, Georges & Desjardins, Denise & Angers, Jean-François, 2021. "Road safety for fleets of vehicles," Working Papers 21-3, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hierarchical model; vehicle insurance pricing; posterior ratemaking; random effect; hierarchical random effects; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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