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Dependence in Dynamic Claim Frequency Credibility Models

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  • Purcaru, Oana
  • Denuit, Michel

Abstract

In nonlife insurance, actuaries usually resort to random effects to take unexplained heterogeneity into account (in the spirit of the Bühlmann-Straub model). This paper aims to study the kind of dependence induced by the introduction of correlated latent variables in the annual numbers of claims reported by policyholders. The effect of reporting claims on the a posteriori distribution of the random effects will be made precise. This will be done by establishing some stochastic monotonicity property of the a posteriori distribution with respect to the claims history.

Suggested Citation

  • Purcaru, Oana & Denuit, Michel, 2003. "Dependence in Dynamic Claim Frequency Credibility Models," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 23-40, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:33:y:2003:i:01:p:23-40_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Wang & Limin Wen & Zhixin Yang & Quan Yuan, 2020. "Quantile Credibility Models with Common Effects," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Muhsin Tamturk & Dominic Cortis & Mark Farrell, 2020. "Examining the Effects of Gradual Catastrophes on Capital Modelling and the Solvency of Insurers: The Case of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Denise Desjardins & Georges Dionne & Yang Lu, 2023. "Hierarchical random‐effects model for the insurance pricing of vehicles belonging to a fleet," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 242-259, March.
    4. Qiang Zhang & Lijun Wu & Qianqian Cui, 2017. "The balanced credibility estimators with correlation risk and inflation factor," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 659-672, September.
    5. Zhang, Jianjun & Qiu, Chunjuan & Wu, Xianyi, 2018. "Bayesian ratemaking with common effects modeled by mixture of Polya tree processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 87-94.
    6. Angers, Jean-François & Desjardins, Denise & Dionne, Georges & Guertin, François, 2006. "Vehicle and Fleet Random Effects in a Model of Insurance Rating for Fleets of Vehicles," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 25-77, May.
    7. Yang Lu, 2018. "Dynamic Frailty Count Process in Insurance: A Unified Framework for Estimation, Pricing, and Forecasting," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 85(4), pages 1083-1102, December.
    8. Antonio, Katrien & Beirlant, Jan, 2007. "Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 58-76, January.
    9. Angers, Jean-François & Desjardins, Denise & Dionne, Georges & Guertin, François, 2018. "Modelling And Estimating Individual And Firm Effects With Count Panel Data," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 1049-1078, September.
    10. Bolance, Catalina & Guillen, Montserrat & Pinquet, Jean, 2003. "Time-varying credibility for frequency risk models: estimation and tests for autoregressive specifications on the random effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 273-282, October.
    11. Pechon, Florian & Denuit, Michel & Trufin, Julien, 2019. "Home and Motor insurance joined at a household level using multivariate credibility," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    12. Yeo, Keng Leong & Valdez, Emiliano A., 2006. "Claim dependence with common effects in credibility models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 609-629, June.
    13. Zhao, Xiaobing & Zhou, Xian, 2012. "Copula models for insurance claim numbers with excess zeros and time-dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 191-199.
    14. Wen, Limin & Wu, Xianyi & Zhou, Xian, 2009. "The credibility premiums for models with dependence induced by common effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 19-25, February.
    15. Frees, Edward W. & Wang, Ping, 2006. "Copula credibility for aggregate loss models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 360-373, April.

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