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Modèle bayésien de tarification de l’assurance des flottes de véhicules

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  • J.F Angers
  • D Desjardins
  • G Dionne

Abstract

We are proposing a parametric model to price insurance for road vehicles belonging to a fleet. The tables of premiums presented in the article take into account past vehicle accidents, observable characteristics of the vehicles and fleets, and violations of the road safety code committed by drivers and transporters. The premiums are also adjusted according to accidents accumulated by the fleets over time. The model proposed accounts directly for explicit changes in the various components of the probability of accidents. It represents an extension of insurance models for individual premiums (Lemaire, 1985; Dionne and Vannase, 1989 and 1992; Pinquet, 1997 and 1998; Frangos and Vrontos, 2001; Purcaru and Denuit, 2003). The extension adds a “fleet” effect to the “vehicle” effect so as to measure the impact that the non-observable characteristics or actions of transporters have on truck accident rates. This form of pricing offers several advantages. It allows us to visualize what impact the behaviours of owners and drivers can have on the predicted rate of accidents and, consequently, on premiums. It measures the influence of traffic violations and accumulated accidents on insurance premiums from a different angle. Indeed, the effects of violations are obtained by means of the regression component, whereas the effects of accidents are derived from unexplained residuals of the regression on truck accidents via a Bayes pricing model.
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Suggested Citation

  • J.F Angers & D Desjardins & G Dionne, 2003. "Modèle bayésien de tarification de l’assurance des flottes de véhicules," THEMA Working Papers 2003-37, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2003-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angers, Jean-François & Desjardins, Denise & Dionne, Georges & Guertin, François, 2006. "Vehicle and Fleet Random Effects in a Model of Insurance Rating for Fleets of Vehicles," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 25-77, May.
    2. Dionne, Georges & Vanasse, Charles, 1989. "A Generalization of Automobile Insurance Rating Models: The Negative Binomial Distribution with a Regression Component," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 199-212, November.
    3. Pinquet, Jean, 1998. "Designing Optimal Bonus-Malus Systems from Different Types of Claims," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 205-220, November.
    4. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    5. Pinquet, Jean, 1997. "Allowance for Cost of Claims in Bonus-Malus Systems," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 33-57, May.
    6. Desjardins, Denise & Dionne, Georges & Pinquet, Jean, 2001. "Experience Rating Schemes for Fleets of Vehicles," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 81-105, May.
    7. Laffont, Jean Jacques, 1997. "Collusion et information asymétrique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(4), pages 595-609, décembre.
    8. Teugels, Jozef L. & Sundt, Bjorn, 1991. "A stop-loss experience rating scheme for fleets of cars," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 173-179, December.
    9. Dionne, G & Vanasse, C, 1992. "Automobile Insurance Ratemaking in the Presence of Asymmetrical Information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 149-165, April-Jun.
    10. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    11. Frangos, Nicholas E. & Vrontos, Spyridon D., 2001. "Design of Optimal Bonus-Malus Systems With a Frequency and a Severity Component On an Individual Basis in Automobile Insurance," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-22, May.
    12. J. Pinquet, 1997. "Experience rating through heterogeneous models," THEMA Working Papers 97-25, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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