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Age Structure Explaining a Large Shift in Homicides: The Case of the State of São Paulo

Author

Listed:
  • João Manoel Pinho de Mello

    (Department of Economics, PUC-Rio)

  • Alexandre Schneider

    (Secretaria de Educação do Município de São Paulo)

Abstract

After reaching a historic peak by the end of the 1990s, homicides in large cities in the state of São Paulo dropped sharply. Several explanations have been advanced, most prominently improvements in policing, adoption of policies such as dry laws, and increased incarceration. In this paper, we show that demographic changes play a large role in explaining the dynamics of homicide. More specifically, we present evidence of a strong co-movement between the proportion of males on the 15-25 age bracket and homicides at the statewide and at city levels, and argue that the relationship is causal. We estimate that a 1% increase in the proportion of 15-to-24-year-old males causes a 4.5% increase in homicides.

Suggested Citation

  • João Manoel Pinho de Mello & Alexandre Schneider, 2007. "Age Structure Explaining a Large Shift in Homicides: The Case of the State of São Paulo," Textos para discussão 549, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:549
    as

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    File URL: http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/uploads/adm/trabalhos/files/td549.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John J. Donohue III & Steven D. Levitt, 2001. "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 379-420.
    2. Ciro Biderman & JoãoMP DeMello & Alexandre Schneider, 2010. "Dry Laws and Homicides: Evidence from the São Paulo Metropolitan Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 157-182, March.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. "It is the demography, stupid"
      by Leonardo Monasterio in Leonardo Monasterio's Blog on 2009-02-28 00:22:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciro Biderman & JoãoMP DeMello & Alexandre Schneider, 2010. "Dry Laws and Homicides: Evidence from the São Paulo Metropolitan Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 157-182, March.
    2. Mejía, Leonardo Bonilla, 2010. "Demografía, juventud y homicidios en Colombia, 1979-2006," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, August.
    3. Luís Carazza & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto & Lucas Emanuel, 2021. "Juvenile curfew and crime reduction: Evidence from Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 561-579, April.

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