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Overnight Interest Rates and Aggregate Market Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Nikola Gradojevic

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada)

  • Ramazan Gençay

    (Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada)

Abstract

This paper introduces an entropy approach to measuring market expectations with respect to overnight interest rates in an inter-bank money market. The findings for the Turkish 2000-2001 borrowing crisis suggest that a dynamic, non-extensive entropy framework provides a valuable insight into the degree of aggregate market concerns during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Gradojevic & Ramazan Gençay, 2009. "Overnight Interest Rates and Aggregate Market Expectations," Working Paper series 26_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:26_09
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lisa Borland, 2002. "A theory of non-Gaussian option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 415-431.
    2. Gamero, L.G. & Plastino, A. & Torres, M.E., 1997. "Wavelet analysis and nonlinear dynamics in a nonextensive setting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 487-509.
    3. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April.
    4. Kitamura, Yuichi & Stutzer, Michael, 2002. "Connections between entropic and linear projections in asset pricing estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 159-174, March.
    5. Martin, M.T. & Plastino, A.R. & Plastino, A., 2000. "Tsallis-like information measures and the analysis of complex signals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 262-271.
    6. Tong, S. & Bezerianos, A. & Paul, J. & Zhu, Y. & Thakor, N., 2002. "Nonextensive entropy measure of EEG following brain injury from cardiac arrest," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 619-628.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. "“Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0209, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut & Ömercikoğlu, Inci & Saltoğlu, Burak, 2014. "Network centrality measures and systemic risk: An application to the Turkish financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 203-215.
    3. Namaki, A. & Koohi Lai, Z. & Jafari, G.R. & Raei, R. & Tehrani, R., 2013. "Comparing emerging and mature markets during times of crises: A non-extensive statistical approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(14), pages 3039-3044.
    4. Nikola Gradojevic & Marko Caric, 2017. "Predicting Systemic Risk with Entropic Indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 16-25, January.
    5. Muhammad Sheraz & Imran Nasir, 2021. "Information-Theoretic Measures and Modeling Stock Market Volatility: A Comparative Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Sensoy, A., 2013. "Effects of monetary policy on the long memory in interest rates: Evidence from an emerging market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 85-88.
    7. Bekiros, Stelios & Jlassi, Mouna & Lucey, Brian & Naoui, Kamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Herding behavior, market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 107-131.
    8. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2010. "Crash of '87 -- Was it expected?: Aggregate market fears and long-range dependence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 270-282, March.
    9. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Papers 1610.05697, arXiv.org.
    10. Ahmad Hajihasani & Ali Namaki & Nazanin Asadi & Reza Tehrani, 2020. "Non-Extensive Value-at-Risk Estimation During Times of Crisis," Papers 2005.09036, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    11. Raja Mazhar Hameed & Abdul Rafae Mazhar Raja & Nida Zahid, 2023. "Herding Spillover among the Stock Markets: Pakistan & China Covering Covid-19 and Its Repercussions," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 257-267.
    12. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Chaos" in energy and commodity markets: a controversial matter," Papers 1611.07432, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-additive Entropy; Tsallis Entropy; q-Gaussian Distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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