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On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration

Author

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  • Elettra Agliardi

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Thomas Alexopoulos

    (Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Greece; Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy)

  • Christian Cech

    (University of Applied Sciences BFI, Austria)

Abstract

The relationship between GHG emissions and global warming is studied through multi-level rolling analysis to assess whether or not there are increasing rates in global change as a result of higher levels of anthropogenic emissions, as we move forward in time. Furthermore, in order to assess whether we observe tail-dependence, representing simultaneous occurrence of extreme events, we employ copula methods. Our main findings do not support views of increasing rates in global climate change as a result of higher levels of emissions. On the contrary, they suggest a constant or even a decreasing effect of emissions on temperature anomalies especially from 2005 onward. At the same time, our copula calibration shows that the Frank copula achieves the best fit. Since the Frank copula is a copula that assigns a low probability to joint extreme events, our analysis does not show tail dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Elettra Agliardi & Thomas Alexopoulos & Christian Cech, 2017. "On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration," Working Paper series 17-05, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-05
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    Cited by:

    1. De Juan Fernández, Aránzazu & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35044, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Phella, Anthoulla & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Martins, Luis F., 2024. "Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Marc Gronwald, 2023. "Explosive Temperatures," CESifo Working Paper Series 10680, CESifo.
    4. Elettra Agliardi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Introduction: Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change and Sustainability," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 1-4, January.
    5. Khezri, Mohsen & Karimi, Mohammad Sharif & Khan, Y.A. & Abbas, S.Z., 2021. "The spillover of financial development on CO2 emission: A spatial econometric analysis of Asia-Pacific countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GHGs; Global temperature anomalies; Rolling analysis; Copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other

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