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The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)

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  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Rupert Read
  • Raphael Douady
  • Joseph Norman
  • Yaneer Bar-Yam

Abstract

We present a non-naive version of the Precautionary (PP) that allows us to avoid paranoia and paralysis by confining precaution to specific domains and problems. PP is intended to deal with uncertainty and risk in cases where the absence of evidence and the incompleteness of scientific knowledge carries profound implications and in the presence of risks of "black swans", unforeseen and unforeseable events of extreme consequence. We formalize PP, placing it within the statistical and probabilistic structure of ruin problems, in which a system is at risk of total failure, and in place of risk we use a formal fragility based approach. We make a central distinction between 1) thin and fat tails, 2) Local and systemic risks and place PP in the joint Fat Tails and systemic cases. We discuss the implications for GMOs (compared to Nuclear energy) and show that GMOs represent a public risk of global harm (while harm from nuclear energy is comparatively limited and better characterized). PP should be used to prescribe severe limits on GMOs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Rupert Read & Raphael Douady & Joseph Norman & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2014. "The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)," Papers 1410.5787, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1410.5787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. N. Taleb & R. Douady, 2013. "Mathematical definition, mapping, and detection of (anti)fragility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1677-1689, November.
    2. Dominic K. Albino & Karla Z. Bertrand & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2012. "Food for fuel: The price of ethanol," Papers 1210.6080, arXiv.org.
    3. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2007. "Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 198-200, August.
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    1. Tina L. Saitone & Richard J. Sexton, 2017. "Agri-food supply chain: evolution and performance with conflicting consumer and societal demands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 634-657.
    2. Carla Susana A. Assuad, 2020. "Understanding Rationality in Sustainable Development Decision-Making: Unfolding the Motivations for Action," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1086-1119, September.
    3. Elettra Agliardi & Thomas Alexopoulos & Christian Cech, 2019. "On the Relationship Between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level Rolling Analysis and Copula Calibration," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133, January.
    4. Thomas A. Norton & Oluremi B. Ayoko & Neal M. Ashkanasy, 2021. "A Socio-Technical Perspective on the Application of Green Ergonomics to Open-Plan Offices: A Review of the Literature and Recommendations for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.

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