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Explosive Temperatures

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  • Marc Gronwald

Abstract

This paper finds that global temperature anomalies are characterised by (temporary) explosiveness, a statistical feature typically found in financial and commodity market data during episodes of extreme price increases. This finding dramatically illustrates the extent temperature changes have already reached. This paper also finds that there are differences across hemispheres: while Northern hemispheric temperature anomalies are clearly found to be explosive, evidence is much weaker in Southern hemispheric data. This finding is attributable to the phenomenon of Arctic amplification. This paper complements recent studies in both climate econometrics and science which find that climate models seem to underestimate this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald, 2023. "Explosive Temperatures," CESifo Working Paper Series 10680, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10680
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10680.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global temperature anomalies; hemispheric temperature anomalies; explosiveness; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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