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Least-cost Decarbonization Pathways for Electricity Generation in Finland: A Convex Quantile Regression Approach

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Listed:
  • Kuosmanen, Natalia
  • Kuosmanen, Timo
  • Maczulskij, Terhi
  • Zhou, Xun

Abstract

This study investigates the least-cost decarbonization pathways in the Finnish electricity generation industry in order to achieve the national carbon neutrality goal by 2035. Various abatement measures, such as downscaling production, capital investment, increasing labor and intermediate inputs are considered. The marginal abatement costs (MACs) of greenhouse gas emissions are estimated using the convex quantile regression method and applied to unique register-based firm-level greenhouse gas emission data merged with financial statement data. We adjust the MAC estimates for the sample selection bias caused by zero-emission firms by applying the two-stage Heckman correction. Our empirical findings reveal that the median MAC ranges from 0.1 to 3.5 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent. The projected economic cost of a 90% reduction in emissions is 62 million euros, while the estimated cost of achieving zero emissions is 83 million euros.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuosmanen, Natalia & Kuosmanen, Timo & Maczulskij, Terhi & Zhou, Xun, 2024. "Least-cost Decarbonization Pathways for Electricity Generation in Finland: A Convex Quantile Regression Approach," ETLA Working Papers 114, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Yongqiao & Wang, Shouyang & Dang, Chuangyin & Ge, Wenxiu, 2014. "Nonparametric quantile frontier estimation under shape restriction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(3), pages 671-678.
    2. Shirong Zhao & Guangshun Qiao, 2022. "The shadow prices of CO2, SO2 and NOx for U.S. coal power industry 2010–2017: a convex quantile regression method," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 243-253, June.
    3. Dai, Sheng & Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun, 2023. "Generalized quantile and expectile properties for shape constrained nonparametric estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(2), pages 914-927.
    4. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    5. Quinn, Barry & Gallagher, Ronan & Kuosmanen, Timo, 2023. "Lurking in the shadows: The impact of CO2 emissions target setting on carbon pricing in the Kyoto agreement period," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. James J. Heckman, 1976. "Introduction to "Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4"," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Timo Kuosmanen, 2008. "Representation theorem for convex nonparametric least squares," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 308-325, July.
    8. Dai, Sheng & Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun, 2023. "Non-crossing convex quantile regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Timo Kuosmanen & Yong Tan & Sheng Dai, 2023. "Performance analysis of English hospitals during the first and second waves of the coronavirus pandemic," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 447-460, September.
    10. Dai, Sheng & Zhou, Xun & Kuosmanen, Timo, 2020. "Forward-looking assessment of the GHG abatement cost: Application to China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Xian, Yujiao & Yu, Dan & Wang, Ke & Yu, Jian & Huang, Zhimin, 2022. "Capturing the least costly measure of CO2 emission abatement: Evidence from the iron and steel industry in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun, 2021. "Shadow prices and marginal abatement costs: Convex quantile regression approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 666-675.
    13. Mekaroonreung, Maethee & Johnson, Andrew L., 2012. "Estimating the shadow prices of SO2 and NOx for U.S. coal power plants: A convex nonparametric least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 723-732.
    14. Timo Kuosmanen & Mika Kortelainen, 2012. "Stochastic non-smooth envelopment of data: semi-parametric frontier estimation subject to shape constraints," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 11-28, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Abatement cost; Convex quantile regression; Forward-looking assessment; Climate policy; Decarbonization pathways;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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