IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rif/wpaper/109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shock Infections through Global Value Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Kuusi, Tero
  • Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki

Abstract

We examine how the Covid-19 shock was transmitted from the foreign, upstream parts of value chains to domestic (downstream) production. After categorizing global value chains based on their home-producer industry and country, we quantify the multiplier effect of the transmitted shock on the entire value chain by considering changes in home production. We focus on the value-chain impact of the early stages of Covid-19 in China (1-4/2020) and measure the upstream (direct) shock using world input-output and Chinese production data. Our differences-in-differences research setup reveals that the shock impact was large: For every percentage point share of value added contributed by the Chinese producers to the value chain, there was a 1.3 percentage point larger contraction in home production. Furthermore, the multiplier effect stemming from the contraction in Chinese manufacturing substantially magnified the initial shock, increasing its impact on domestic production by an order of magnitude. The effects varied across industries and regions, with the most substantial multiplier effects observed in highly digitalized, high-R&D industries, particularly in the EU and North America. Furthermore, we provide evidence on the dynamics of adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuusi, Tero & Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki, 2023. "Shock Infections through Global Value Chains," ETLA Working Papers 109, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Working-Papers-109.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew V. Leduc, 2022. "Supply Network Formation and Fragility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2701-2747, August.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2020. "Firms, Failures, and Fluctuations: The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions," NBER Working Papers 27565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Marcel Timmer, 2017. "Productivity Measurement in Global Value Chains," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 182-193, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," CEPR Discussion Papers 18555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2024. "Supply chain risk: Changes in supplier composition and vertical integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 79-167.
    6. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
    7. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    8. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 on Global Value Chains," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 154-177, June.
    9. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Chen, Jun & Elliott, Matthew & Koh, Andrew, 2023. "Capability accumulation and conglomeratization in the information age," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    11. Agostino Capponi & Chuan Du & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2024. "Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?," NBER Working Papers 32221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    13. Adermon, Adrian & Laun, Lisa & Lind, Patrik & Olsson, Martin & Sauermann, Jan & Sjögren , Anna, 2022. "Earnings losses and the role of the welfare state during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2022:20, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    14. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Jacob, Joshy & Srivastava, Jagriti, 2022. "Fishing in muddy waters: Mergers and acquisitions during uncertainty," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-09-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    15. Gloria Allione & Claire Giordano, 2023. "Are the Happy Few still happy? Exporter heterogeneity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 816, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    18. Ernest Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dynamical Structure and Spectral Properties of Input-Output Networks," Working Papers 2021-13, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    19. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the Economic and Health Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Italian Regions: A Value Chain Approach," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    20. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global value chains; Shock; Infection; Covid-19; Transmission; Transmit; Linkage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • L24 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Contracting Out; Joint Ventures

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etlaafi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.