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Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains

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  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Mukunoki, Hiroshi

Abstract

We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains by examining bilateral trade in finished machinery products from January to June in both 2019 and 2020. We use the numbers of COVID¬ 19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. Specifically, we investigate how these impacts affect value chains in three scenarios—countries that import finished machinery products, countries that export finished machinery products, and countries that export machinery parts to countries exporting finished machinery products—to assess the impacts on demand, output, and supply chain effects, respectively. In our analysis, the largest negative impacts were from supply chain effects, followed by output effects. In contrast, we did not find significant impacts from demand effects. We also found that output effects are not so strong in intra-Asian trade compared with trade in other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains," IDE Discussion Papers 797, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper797
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    3. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
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    8. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    10. Yasuyuki Todo & Keita Oikawa & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India," Working Papers DP-2021-40, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Keita Oikawa & Yasuyuki Todo & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Business Activities and Supply Chains in the ASEAN Member States and India," Working Papers DP-2021-17, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2023. "Japan's Dependence on China in Supply Chains: Diversion of Imports from China to ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 897, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    14. Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    15. Bogusława Drelich-Skulska & Sebastian Bobowski & Jan Gola, 2021. "Global Value Chains in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Symptoms of Deglobalization," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 905-913.
    16. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Hyun-Hoon, Lee & Cyn-Young, Park, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment," IDE Discussion Papers 831, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Khorana, Sangeeta & Escaith, Hubert & Ali, Salamat & Kumari, Sushma & Do, Quynh, 2022. "The changing contours of global value chains post-COVID: Evidence from the Commonwealth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 75-86.
    19. Oudom Hean & Nattanicha Chairassamee, 2021. "Household consumption expenditure in Thailand during the first COVID-19 lockdown," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 28(2), pages 1-37, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Global value chains; Asia; Business enterprises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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