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Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects

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  • Sulamaa, Pekka
  • Widgrén, Mika

Abstract

This paper evaluates and compares the economic effects of global liberalization of world trade and regional integration scenario in which an Asian trading block is emerging. The evaluation is based on computable general equilibrium model GTAP (global trade analysis project) that has been widely used in analyses of big regime changes in world economy. The results show that global free trade is better for all regions in the investigation. Compared to the current trade regime, that does not hold since e.g. the new EU member states would be worse-off. The biggest winners of global free trade are Asian countries, Brasilia and developing countries. At industry level the results show regional concentration tendencies in production of agriculture, energy sector and in textile, paper and car industries.
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  • Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:985
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    Cited by:

    1. ANDO Mitsuyo, 2009. "Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation Analysis," Discussion papers 09037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Andrista, Safira & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Welfare Impact of ASEAN Economic Integration: “ASEAN Way” Versus Theory," MPRA Paper 80880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Innwon Park, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 169-194, June.
    4. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    5. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    6. Innwon Park, 2011. "Is AFTA a Desirable Regional Trade Agreement for ASEAN?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 49-72, December.
    7. Johansson, Edvard & Böckerman, Petri & Prättälä, Ritva & Uutela, Antti, 2005. "Alcohol Mortality, Drinking Behavior, and Business Cycles: Are Slumps Really Dry Seasons?," Discussion Papers 986, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    free trade; regionalism; GTAP model; F15; F17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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