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Is Weather Really Additive in Agricultural Production? Implications for Climate Change Impacts

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  • Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

Recent reduced-form econometric models of climate change impacts on agriculture assume climate is additive. This is reflected in climate regressors that are aggregated over several months that include the growing season. In this paper I develop a simple model to show how this assumption imposes implausible characteristics on the production technology that are in serious conflict with the agricultural sciences. I test this assumption using a crop yield model of US corn that accounts for variation in weather at various times of the growing season. Results strongly reject additivity and suggest that weather shocks such as extreme temperatures are particularly detrimental toward the middle of the season around flowering time, in agreement with the natural sciences. I discuss how the additivity assumption tends to underestimate the range of adaptation possibilities available to farmers, thus overstating projected climate change impacts on the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2013. "Is Weather Really Additive in Agricultural Production? Implications for Climate Change Impacts," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-41, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-41
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-13-41.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Richard E. Just, 2013. "Modeling the Structure of Adaptation in Climate Change Impact Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 244-251.
    2. John M. Antle, 1983. "Sequential Decision Making in Production Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 282-290.
    3. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "The Evolution of Heat Tolerance of Corn: Implications for Climate Change," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 225-251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richard E. Just & Rulon D. Pope, 1979. "Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 276-284.
    5. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt65s781bh, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    6. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    7. Antle, John M., 1983. "Sequential Decision Making in Production Models," 1983 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 3, West Lafayette, Indiana 279107, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Yair Mundlak & Assaf Razin, 1971. "On Multistage Multiproduct Production Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(3), pages 491-499.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Temperature thresholds and the effect of warming on American farmland value," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 601-615, August.
    2. Max Vilgalys, 2023. "A Machine Learning Approach to Measuring Climate Adaptation," Papers 2302.01236, arXiv.org.
    3. McFadden, Jonathan & Miranowski, John, "undated". "Climate Change Impacts on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of US Agricultural Land," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170512, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Arora, Gaurav & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A. & Anderson, Christopher J., 2016. "Crop Competitiveness and Future Climate Change in the Northern Great Plains," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235895, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Bertone Oehninger, Ernst & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Sanchirico, James & Springborn, Michael, 2016. "The effects of climate change on groundwater extraction for agriculture and land-use change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235724, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Emanuele Massetti & Steven Van Passel & Camila Apablaza, 2018. "Is Western European Agriculture Resilient to High Temperatures?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7286, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; agriculture; production; additivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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