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Prospects for Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from British Columbia: An Application of Monte Carlo Cost-Benefit Analysis

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  • Matt Zahynacz

Abstract

British Columbia’s natural gas industry is currently facing competitive pressures from other gas-producing jurisdictions in North America. The emergence of shale gas developments has resulted in natural gas prices falling dramatically. Nonetheless, British Columbia is positioned to take advantage of growing markets in Asia that have considerably higher prices than in North America through the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in carrier ships. This paper aims to assess the economic viability of an LNG industry in British Columbia by analyzing world LNG prices and trade, market development, and costs through a Monte Carlo risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Zahynacz, 2013. "Prospects for Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from British Columbia: An Application of Monte Carlo Cost-Benefit Analysis," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:rep:wpaper:2013-03
    as

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    File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/~repa/publications/REPA%20working%20papers/WorkingPaper2013-03.pdf
    File Function: Final version, 2013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maxwell, Don & Zhu, Zhen, 2011. "Natural gas prices, LNG transport costs, and the dynamics of LNG imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 217-226, March.
    2. Langton, Thomas, 1994. "LNG prospects in the Asia--Pacific region," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 257-264, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    LNG trade; natural gas as coal replacement; Monte Carlo simulation; shale gas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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