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Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe—Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World

Author

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  • Mahdi Fasihi

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

  • Dmitrii Bogdanov

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

  • Christian Breyer

    (School of Energy Systems, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland)

Abstract

Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh HHV (0.78 €/m 3 SNG ) and 88 €/MWh HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh HHV (0.68 €/m 3 SNG ) and 83 €/MWh HHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO 2 emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Fasihi & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Christian Breyer, 2017. "Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe—Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:306-:d:90805
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    13. Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Aghahosseini, Arman & Gulagi, Ashish & Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Child, Michael & Caldera, Upeksha & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Farfan, Javier & De Souza Noel Simas Barbos, 2021. "Low-cost renewable electricity as the key driver of the global energy transition towards sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
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    16. Christopher G. F. Bataille, 2020. "Physical and policy pathways to net‐zero emissions industry," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), March.
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    18. Fasihi, Mahdi & Weiss, Robert & Savolainen, Jouni & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Global potential of green ammonia based on hybrid PV-wind power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
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    21. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
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